Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/790/original/img%201.JPG?1542165661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69790"></figure>

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:<ul>
<li>Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  </li>
<li>Overweight Norway.</li>
<li>Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. </li>
<li>Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.</li>
</ul>

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:
Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  
Overweight Norway.
Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. 
Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.


Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

France

Sanofi operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Sanofi also develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, and oncology medicines and drugs. Sanofi serves customers worldwide.

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Sanofi (SAN FP)

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities...

Vermilion Research

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in...

Vermilion Research

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