Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 65.2% as of Feb 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.8ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, utilities, industrials and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD, Flat Glass, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 65.2% as of Feb 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.8ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, utilities, industrials and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD, Flat Glass, Zijin Mining.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 13th): Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen / Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equipmen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK)</a> has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.</li>
<li>We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. </li>
<li>At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. </li>
</ul>



Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK) has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.
We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. 
At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. 


Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 68.0% as of Feb 6th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, industrials and offset by consumer staples, energy, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials, Cngr Advanced Material, China Suntien Green Energy, Cgn Power, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 68.0% as of Feb 6th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, industrials and offset by consumer staples, energy, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials, Cngr Advanced Material, China Suntien Green Energy, Cgn Power, BYD.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 6th): China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.</li>
<li>We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rambus-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7214:1" rel="noopener">Rambus (RMBS US)</a>, the third-largest player globally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.</li>
</ul>


As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, Montage Technology (6809 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.
We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over Rambus (RMBS US), the third-largest player globally. 

This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.


Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

China

Sany Heavy Industry is a Chinese multinational heavy equipment manufacturing company that specializes in manufacturing and marketing construction machinery. Its product range includes concrete machinery, excavators, cranes, road construction machinery, and piling machinery. The company is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan, China, and was founded in 1994.

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Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 13th): Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 6th): China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials, Cngr...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 13th): Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Electric, China Energy Engineering, Sinotrans, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

​Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 6th): China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Oilfield Services, Huaxin Building Materials, Cngr...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

​Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...