Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> has agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> by way of a Scheme of Arrangement in an all-stock deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> shareholders will receive 0.119 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> shares for each De Grey share held. That implies a 37.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> at the time of merger completion, though there could be selling from some existing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG)</a> shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) has agreed to acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU) by way of a Scheme of Arrangement in an all-stock deal.

De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders will receive 0.119 Northern Star Resources (NST AU) shares for each De Grey share held. That implies a 37.1% premium to the last close.
There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at the time of merger completion, though there could be selling from some existing De Grey Mining (DEG) shareholders.


Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

On 12 March, MV Index Solutions announced the results of the quarterly review of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index.There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion for the index at the March review and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.The inclusions are Skeena Resources, Discovery Metals, Marathon Gold, Liberty Gold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maverix-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28296:1" rel="noopener">Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaguar-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25393:1" rel="noopener">Jaguar Mining (JAG CN)</a>, Galiano Gold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17430:1" rel="noopener">Silver Mines (SVL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caledonia-mining-corp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26708:1" rel="noopener">Caledonia Mining Corp PLC (CMCL US)</a>, while the sole exclusion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> is a result of its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> that results in the new company not being 'Junior' any more.Given the relatively high assets tracking the index, there will be quite a few days of ADV to trade on the inclusions and exclusions, though in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> we expect a lot of the selling has already been priced in.

On 12 March, MV Index Solutions announced the results of the quarterly review of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index.There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion for the index at the March review and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.The inclusions are Skeena Resources, Discovery Metals, Marathon Gold, Liberty Gold, Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN), Jaguar Mining (JAG CN), Galiano Gold, Silver Mines (SVL AU) and Caledonia Mining Corp PLC (CMCL US), while the sole exclusion is Northern Star Resources (NST AU).The deletion of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is a result of its merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) that results in the new company not being 'Junior' any more.Given the relatively high assets tracking the index, there will be quite a few days of ADV to trade on the inclusions and exclusions, though in the case of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) we expect a lot of the selling has already been priced in.

Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Northern Star Deletion Could Provide a Good Entry Point

<div>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</div><div>
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

Following the merger of equals between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a>, Saracen's last trading day will be 3 February.The various index providers will all delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> at the close of trading on 3 February and increase the number of shares and investability weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>. This will result in passive selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> and passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a>'s deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> will create a vacancy that will be filled by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a>'s inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a>'s deletion will also lead to changes in the names that are expected to be included in/excluded from the index at the March review.

Following the merger of equals between Northern Star Resources (NST AU) and Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU), Saracen's last trading day will be 3 February.The various index providers will all delete Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) at the close of trading on 3 February and increase the number of shares and investability weight for Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This will result in passive selling on Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) and passive buying on Northern Star Resources (NST AU).Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)'s deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) will create a vacancy that will be filled by PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU).PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)'s inclusion in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)'s deletion will also lead to changes in the names that are expected to be included in/excluded from the index at the March review.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> has covered the pertinent details of Saracen Mineral Holdings’ and Northern Star Resources’ merger-of-(almost)equals <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/northern-star-saracen-merger-of-equals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. We had been advocating a positive stance on Saracen prior to that and still like the name. In fact, we like the combined entity even more and discuss some of the fundamental considerations below.

David Blennerhassett has covered the pertinent details of Saracen Mineral Holdings’ and Northern Star Resources’ merger-of-(almost)equals here. We had been advocating a positive stance on Saracen prior to that and still like the name. In fact, we like the combined entity even more and discuss some of the fundamental considerations below.

Saracen – Trade the Northern Star Deal and Then Stay Long Northern Star

Australia

Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd. explores for and produces gold.  The Company produces gold from its Carosue Dam mine located notheast of Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.

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Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)

Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

NST is looking to acquire DEG in an all-stock deal that values DEG at A$5bn. GOR owns 17.27% of DEG and holds the only possible blocking stake....

Brian Freitas

Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Northern Star Deletion Could Provide a Good Entry Point

There are 9 inclusions and 1 exclusion from the MVCI Global Junior Gold Miners Index. Northern Star's deletion was expected and the stock could...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

Saracen/Northern Star Merger: Index Flow

Saracen Minerals will be deleted from all indices at the close on 3 February following its merger with Northern Star. There could be a lot of flow...

Brian Freitas

Saracen – Trade the Northern Star Deal and Then Stay Long Northern Star

David Blennerhassett has covered the pertinent details of Saracen Mineral Holdings’ and Northern Star Resources’ merger-of-(almost)equals here. We...

Mio Kato

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