Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The S&amp;P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the 200-day moving average. This level is roughly 2,817 on the S&amp;P 500 and roughly 1,000 on the S&amp;P 600 Small Cap index. Some consolidation or a mild pullback is possible in the near-term, which we believe would help alleviate current overbought readings and allow for a more orderly and meaningful move higher.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Services Sectors.

The S&amp;P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the 200-day moving average. This level is roughly 2,817 on the S&amp;P 500 and roughly 1,000 on the S&amp;P 600 Small Cap index. Some consolidation or a mild pullback is possible in the near-term, which we believe would help alleviate current overbought readings and allow for a more orderly and meaningful move higher.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Services Sectors.

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Testing Resistance...Still

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During 9MFY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> reported revenue growth of 8% YoY to ¥121B, while operating profit stood at ¥33B, up 8% YoY.</li>
<li>Viltepso witnessed growth both in Japan and the U.S. and licensing income also increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi.</li>
<li>Guidance for FY25 have been raised with sales now expected to be ¥160B, up 8% YoY.</li>
</ul>


During 9MFY25, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) reported revenue growth of 8% YoY to ¥121B, while operating profit stood at ¥33B, up 8% YoY.
Viltepso witnessed growth both in Japan and the U.S. and licensing income also increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi.
Guidance for FY25 have been raised with sales now expected to be ¥160B, up 8% YoY.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Strong 9MFY25 Numbers; FY25 Guidance Raised; Regular Launches Remain Key

<ul>
<li>A US court found <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> guilty of patent infringement related to competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarepta-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17729:1" rel="noopener">Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)</a>'s DMD drug Vyondys 53 and asked to pay $115M as compensation.  </li>
<li>The jury verdict will have no bearing on Viltepso sales. Nippon Shinyaku disagreed with the verdict, and is considering all options including post jury motions and appeals.</li>
<li>An additional expense to the tune of $115M would surely be a huge drag on the profitability of the company which is already under pressure because of rising costs.</li>
</ul>


A US court found Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) guilty of patent infringement related to competitor Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)'s DMD drug Vyondys 53 and asked to pay $115M as compensation.  
The jury verdict will have no bearing on Viltepso sales. Nippon Shinyaku disagreed with the verdict, and is considering all options including post jury motions and appeals.
An additional expense to the tune of $115M would surely be a huge drag on the profitability of the company which is already under pressure because of rising costs.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Unfavorable Patent Verdict; Company Vows to Fight Back

United States

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of unique RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of both rare and infectious diseases. The Company offers its products to the medical industry in countries around the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Testing Resistance...Still

The S&P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the...

Vermilion Research

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Strong 9MFY25 Numbers; FY25 Guidance Raised; Regular Launches Remain Key

Nippon Shinyaku sees high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, with Viltepso and Uptravi driving sales increase. FY25 sales guidance...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Unfavorable Patent Verdict; Company Vows to Fight Back

US court orders Nippon Shinyaku to pay $115M for patent infringement on Sarepta Therapeutics' DMD drug Vyondys 53. This will significantly impact...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Testing Resistance...Still

The S&P 500 is beginning to come off of short-term overbought extremes, consolidating near the confluence of key overhead resistance and the...

Vermilion Research

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Strong 9MFY25 Numbers; FY25 Guidance Raised; Regular Launches Remain Key

​Nippon Shinyaku sees high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, with Viltepso and Uptravi driving sales increase. FY25 sales guidance...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Unfavorable Patent Verdict; Company Vows to Fight Back

​US court orders Nippon Shinyaku to pay $115M for patent infringement on Sarepta Therapeutics' DMD drug Vyondys 53. This will significantly impact...

Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku sees high single-digit revenue and profit growth in 9MFY25, with Viltepso and Uptravi driving sales increase. FY25 sales guidance...

US court orders Nippon Shinyaku to pay $115M for patent infringement on Sarepta Therapeutics' DMD drug Vyondys 53. This will significantly impact...