Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SBI Tender obtained 56.92mm shares out of 58.21mm shares max. Pro-ration was 100% and SBI now owns 47.77%. </li>
<li>The data suggests Murakami-related holders tendered at least some of their shares. Real World Float (RWF) at the end of the coming week will be ~15-16% of TSO less Treasury.</li>
<li>Now we have a back-end and future squeeze-out trade which will be coloured by SBI taking control, "fair value" valuations, and the possibility of a pre-squeezeout squeeze of RWF.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Tender obtained 56.92mm shares out of 58.21mm shares max. Pro-ration was 100% and SBI now owns 47.77%. 
The data suggests Murakami-related holders tendered at least some of their shares. Real World Float (RWF) at the end of the coming week will be ~15-16% of TSO less Treasury.
Now we have a back-end and future squeeze-out trade which will be coloured by SBI taking control, "fair value" valuations, and the possibility of a pre-squeezeout squeeze of RWF.


SBI Tender on Shinsei Successful. Goes to 47.77%. The BIG Question Is... Who Owns The Float?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are currently 45  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>-controlled supermarket companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-co-ltd-ehime" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11419:1" rel="noopener">Fuji (8278 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxvalu-nishinihon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13743:1" rel="noopener">Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP)</a> announced the Exchange Ratio for the first stage of their integration process.</li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jin-jiang-capital-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15781:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 45  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal this week: Aeon (8267 JP)-controlled supermarket companies Fuji (8278 JP) and Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP) announced the Exchange Ratio for the first stage of their integration process.
Keys updates took place for: Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Sydney Airport (SYD AU), Kansai Super Market (9919 JP), and Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shinsei Bank, Sydney Airports, Kansi Super, Shanghai Jin Jiang

<ul>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB072VM0X01C21A2000000/?unlock=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. </li>
<li>The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> should push back, changing their recommendation, which might cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei article out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. 
The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." 

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) should push back, changing their recommendation, which might cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.


SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.</li>
<li>The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.</li>
<li>In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. </li>
</ul>


Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.
The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.
In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. 


Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.</li>
<li>Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.</li>
<li>Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.
Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.
Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.


Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

Japan

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

SBI Tender on Shinsei Successful. Goes to 47.77%. The BIG Question Is... Who Owns The Float?

The SBI TOB for Shinsei is done. They got to 47.77%; pro-ration was 100%. 3.5% of shares out traded Thurs-Fri and Murakami-san likely tendered some...

Travis Lundy

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Shinsei Bank, Sydney Airports, Kansi Super, Shanghai Jin Jiang

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

SBI appears to be setting up to take majority control of Shinsei. The Nikkei carried an article about post-tender intentions for a takeover. This...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

Murakami-san has upped his position in Shinsei Bank yet again, this time adding after the EGM kerfuffle was resolved. That tells us something and...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

The Shinsei Bank (8303) Tender Offer Arb is now officially juicy. There is a question of whether Murakami-san will tender or whether he won't. That...

Travis Lundy

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