Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations, owing to concerns that GDP growth may fall below projections.</li><li>The rate cut, alongside debt relief measures and the government's preparation of additional economic stimulus, signals a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support the economy.</li><li>Sectors expected to benefit from these measures include the consumer-related sector (CPALL), finance sector (MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, JMT), and real estate sector (SPALI, AP, SC). </li></ul>

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations, owing to concerns that GDP growth may fall below projections.The rate cut, alongside debt relief measures and the government's preparation of additional economic stimulus, signals a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support the economy.Sectors expected to benefit from these measures include the consumer-related sector (CPALL), finance sector (MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, JMT), and real estate sector (SPALI, AP, SC). 

Economic Update: Rate Cut by 0.25% to 2.00%: MPC Kicks off 2025 with an Unexpected Rate Cut

<ul><li>We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.</li><li>The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.</li><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. </li></ul>

We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. 

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

<ul><li>Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.</li><li>Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.</li><li>The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.</li></ul>

Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> acquires 2 freehold office buildings in Melbourne</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-sponsor-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19779" rel="noopener">First Sponsor (FSG SP)</a> FY21 net profit up 18% YoY; Led by property development segment, hotels’ recovery underway in CN and EUR</li><li>SREIT ETFs picks up retail investors as net buy continues into 2022</li></ul>

Straits Trading (STRTR SP) acquires 2 freehold office buildings in MelbourneFirst Sponsor (FSG SP) FY21 net profit up 18% YoY; Led by property development segment, hotels’ recovery underway in CN and EURSREIT ETFs picks up retail investors as net buy continues into 2022

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (14Feb22) - STRTR Buys 2 Melbourne Offices

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU fell 31.4% YoY; Delivering on turnaround story  </li><li>Oakwood plans to open 20 new properties in 2022; Targets to double portfolio by 2025</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-lai-huat-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9115" rel="noopener">HLH Group (HLHG SP)</a> optimistic on Cambodian market recovery in 2022</li></ul>

Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2H21 DPU fell 31.4% YoY; Delivering on turnaround story  Oakwood plans to open 20 new properties in 2022; Targets to double portfolio by 2025HLH Group (HLHG SP) optimistic on Cambodian market recovery in 2022

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (20Jan22) - SSREIT Delivering on Turnaround Story

Thailand

SC Asset Corporation Public Company Limited is a real estate developer in Thailand. It develops and sells single detached houses, townhomes, condominiums, and office buildings, and also rents office and technical buildings. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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SC Asset (SC TB)

Economic Update: Rate Cut by 0.25% to 2.00%: MPC Kicks off 2025 with an Unexpected Rate Cut

The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to slash the policy interest rate to 2% from 2.25%, contrary to market expectations

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH,...

Krungthai XSpring

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (14Feb22) - STRTR Buys 2 Melbourne Offices

Retail investors net BUY the SREITs sector; SC targets THB22bn in presales and revs; PRMX to complete San Juan tower; Klang Valley incoming retail...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (20Jan22) - SSREIT Delivering on Turnaround Story

SSREIT delivering on turnaround story; Oakwood targets double portfolio by 2025; HLHG bullish on Cambodia; MEG buys 2.2ha MJC property for...

SCCM Asia Research

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