Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The spike in energy and fertilizer prices is igniting concerns about durably higher inflation expectations among policymakers. The inflation surges in India, Philippines, Thailand and Korea are particularly noticeable.</li>
<li>Real policy rates are negative in Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines. India could be headed there if inflation rises further. Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are already on a tightening path.</li>
<li>Indian real rates are positive for now, but a deficient monsoon-induced food inflation spike could drive rate hikes later this year. So could Malaysia and Thailand in late 2026.</li>
</ul>


The spike in energy and fertilizer prices is igniting concerns about durably higher inflation expectations among policymakers. The inflation surges in India, Philippines, Thailand and Korea are particularly noticeable.
Real policy rates are negative in Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines. India could be headed there if inflation rises further. Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are already on a tightening path.
Indian real rates are positive for now, but a deficient monsoon-induced food inflation spike could drive rate hikes later this year. So could Malaysia and Thailand in late 2026.


Asia: Which Economies Are Most Likely to Tighten Monetary Policy?

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.</li><li>We expect the Thai equity market to place greater emphasis on domestic political developments, particularly the progress in the prime minister selection process.</li><li>KTX maintains our view that GULF is the top pick in the power sector, supported by its low-risk power portfolio (94% of capacity sold to EGAT, with fuel cost pass-through).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.We expect the Thai equity market to place greater emphasis on domestic political developments, particularly the progress in the prime minister selection process.KTX maintains our view that GULF is the top pick in the power sector, supported by its low-risk power portfolio (94% of capacity sold to EGAT, with fuel cost pass-through).

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 19, 2026

<ul><li>The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, together with the upcoming Fed meeting next week, prompted profit-taking and risk-reduction selling.</li><li>The index moved within a volatile range over the past week but still showed resilience by withstanding negative factors, including Middle East tensions and fund outflows, while remaining above the 1,400-point support level.</li><li>Therefore, we maintain a positive outlook on the index, expecting downside to be limited or the index to move sideways while awaiting positive catalysts.</li></ul>

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, together with the upcoming Fed meeting next week, prompted profit-taking and risk-reduction selling.The index moved within a volatile range over the past week but still showed resilience by withstanding negative factors, including Middle East tensions and fund outflows, while remaining above the 1,400-point support level.Therefore, we maintain a positive outlook on the index, expecting downside to be limited or the index to move sideways while awaiting positive catalysts.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 16, 2026

<ul><li>Asian bourses continued to rise as global oil prices weakened. The SET traded in positive territory throughout the day and touched 1,428.06 before retreating in the afternoon on profit taking, pressured by a rebound in oil prices and concerns over the prolonged Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, foreign investors were net sellers for the fifth consecutive day.</li><li>The index, which had shown strong momentum and was expected to rebound toward 1,450 points, may need to reassess its outlook after a sharp drop, pressured by fund outflows.</li><li>Meanwhile, the MACD has weakened and moved close to the zero line, raising caution over a potential dead cross signal. However, as long as the index remains above the 1,400–1,384 point support zone, we believe it is still trading in the upper Fibonacci channel, with potential to rebound further as domestic buying begins to play a larger role in supporting the index.</li></ul>

Asian bourses continued to rise as global oil prices weakened. The SET traded in positive territory throughout the day and touched 1,428.06 before retreating in the afternoon on profit taking, pressured by a rebound in oil prices and concerns over the prolonged Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, foreign investors were net sellers for the fifth consecutive day.The index, which had shown strong momentum and was expected to rebound toward 1,450 points, may need to reassess its outlook after a sharp drop, pressured by fund outflows.Meanwhile, the MACD has weakened and moved close to the zero line, raising caution over a potential dead cross signal. However, as long as the index remains above the 1,400–1,384 point support zone, we believe it is still trading in the upper Fibonacci channel, with potential to rebound further as domestic buying begins to play a larger role in supporting the index.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 12, 2026

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to face renewed pressure today, with support at 1,400/1,384 points and resistance at 1,420/1,431 points.</li><li>The MPC minutes signal that Thailand’s policy rate at 1.00% has likely reached its bottom.</li><li>We maintain our fair index level at 1,413 points and also see 1,340–1,350 points should provide relatively strong support.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to face renewed pressure today, with support at 1,400/1,384 points and resistance at 1,420/1,431 points.The MPC minutes signal that Thailand’s policy rate at 1.00% has likely reached its bottom.We maintain our fair index level at 1,413 points and also see 1,340–1,350 points should provide relatively strong support.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 12, 2026

Thailand

SCB X is a Thailand-based financial technology holding company and the parent of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand's largest commercial banks. It operates across three core business pillars: Banking Services, Consumer and Digital Financial Services, and Platform and Technology. The company was officially established on September 15, 2021, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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SCB X (SCB TB)

Asia: Which Economies Are Most Likely to Tighten Monetary Policy?

Rising energy & fertilizer prices fuel inflation worries, with sharp surges in India, PH, TH & KR. After KR, PH & ID, India could hike rates if...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 19, 2026

The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 16, 2026

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, together with the upcoming Fed meeting next week, prompted profit-taking...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 12, 2026

The index, which had shown strong momentum and was expected to rebound toward 1,450 points, may need to reassess its outlook after a sharp drop,...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 12, 2026

The SET Index is expected to face renewed pressure today, with support at 1,400/1,384 points and resistance at 1,420/1,431 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia: Which Economies Are Most Likely to Tighten Monetary Policy?

​Rising energy & fertilizer prices fuel inflation worries, with sharp surges in India, PH, TH & KR. After KR, PH & ID, India could hike rates if...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 19, 2026

The SET Index is expected to face limited pressure today, with support at 1,431/1,418 points and resistance at 1,450/1,467 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 16, 2026

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising global oil prices, together with the upcoming Fed meeting next week, prompted profit-taking...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. March 12, 2026

The index, which had shown strong momentum and was expected to rebound toward 1,450 points, may need to reassess its outlook after a sharp drop,...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. March 12, 2026

The SET Index is expected to face renewed pressure today, with support at 1,400/1,384 points and resistance at 1,420/1,431 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Rising energy & fertilizer prices fuel inflation worries, with sharp surges in India, PH, TH & KR. After KR, PH & ID, India could hike rates if...