Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150


Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.</li>
<li>U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.</li>
</ul>


Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.
U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.
ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.


Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

VanEck Oil Services ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OIH’s oilfield services focus, bullish technicals, and rebound history position it to outpace XLE, provided crude prices avoid a sharp near-term downturn.</li>
<li>Since April, OIH has steadily recovered with higher lows, outperforming XLE on the back of a technical rebound and strengthening oil services fundamentals.</li>
<li>The rebound was led by Baker Hughes, OIH’s second-largest holding, after a Q2 beat driven by expanding gas and LNG technology services, while SLB and Halliburton lagged.</li>
</ul>


OIH’s oilfield services focus, bullish technicals, and rebound history position it to outpace XLE, provided crude prices avoid a sharp near-term downturn.
Since April, OIH has steadily recovered with higher lows, outperforming XLE on the back of a technical rebound and strengthening oil services fundamentals.
The rebound was led by Baker Hughes, OIH’s second-largest holding, after a Q2 beat driven by expanding gas and LNG technology services, while SLB and Halliburton lagged.


Oilfield Services’ Quiet Comeback: Can It Keep Outpacing the Broader Energy Pack?

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. </li>
<li>U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.</li>
<li>Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.</li>
</ul>


WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. 
U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.
Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.


[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

<ul>
<li>Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.</li>
<li>SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.</li>
<li>WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.</li>
</ul>


Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.
SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.
WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.


[ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak

United States

Schlumberger Limited is an oil services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of services, including technology, project management and information solutions to the international petroleum industry as well as advanced acquisition and data processing surveys.

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Schlumberger Ltd (SLB US)

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

Oilfield Services’ Quiet Comeback: Can It Keep Outpacing the Broader Energy Pack?

OIH's oilfield services focus and bullish technicals suggest it may outpace XLE, as long as crude prices remain stable. Baker Hughes led the...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak

Chevron's arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks key asset in Guyana, Hess acquisition; SLB outperforms Q2 estimates with ChampionX acquisition;...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

​Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

Oilfield Services’ Quiet Comeback: Can It Keep Outpacing the Broader Energy Pack?

​OIH's oilfield services focus and bullish technicals suggest it may outpace XLE, as long as crude prices remain stable. Baker Hughes led the...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

​WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak

​Chevron's arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks key asset in Guyana, Hess acquisition; SLB outperforms Q2 estimates with ChampionX acquisition;...

Mint Finance

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

OIH's oilfield services focus and bullish technicals suggest it may outpace XLE, as long as crude prices remain stable. Baker Hughes led the...

WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...

Chevron's arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks key asset in Guyana, Hess acquisition; SLB outperforms Q2 estimates with ChampionX acquisition;...