Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.</li>
<li>RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight</li>
<li>We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.
RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight
We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.


Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150


Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. </li>
<li>U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.</li>
<li>Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.</li>
</ul>


WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. 
U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.
Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.


[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

United States

Schlumberger Limited is an oil services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of services, including technology, project management and information solutions to the international petroleum industry as well as advanced acquisition and data processing surveys.

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Schlumberger Ltd (SLB US)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...

Mint Finance

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US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops

​WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...

Mint Finance

WTI crude prices face pressure from oversupply and weak sentiment. US natural gas prices dip due to high output and mild weather. Oil & Gas...