Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. </li><li>Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;</li><li>Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.</li><li>As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.</li></ul>Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

<ul><li>It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.</li><li>In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.</li><li>It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.</li><li>The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.</li><li>With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Central China Real Estate / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPPIB is set to sell a China mall to Dajia Insurance for $163M, showcasing a significant real estate deal in Asia.</li><li>GDS announces rebranding of its international unit as DayOne, reflecting a strategic shift within the company.</li><li>Henderson Land plans expansion in Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, while Schroders markets Kowloon Complex floor after canceled auction. Singapore private home prices surge in Q4 with 3-5% growth predicted for 2025.</li></ul>

CPPIB is set to sell a China mall to Dajia Insurance for $163M, showcasing a significant real estate deal in Asia.GDS announces rebranding of its international unit as DayOne, reflecting a strategic shift within the company.Henderson Land plans expansion in Mid-Levels, Hong Kong, while Schroders markets Kowloon Complex floor after canceled auction. Singapore private home prices surge in Q4 with 3-5% growth predicted for 2025.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kkr-said-weigh-takeover-bid-065550154.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that KKR has made a non-binding, preliminary approach to taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> private. ASMPT has been the subject of takeover rumours in the past.</li>
<li>The trading patterns of the substantial shareholders suggest a willingness to exit. However, past privatisation rumours suggest issues with the offeror matching key shareholders' price expectations. </li>
<li>A binding proposal is unlikely as the timing would be viewed as opportunistic, with the recent market rally eroding a potential takeover premium and ASMPT’s premium multiple compared to peers.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that KKR has made a non-binding, preliminary approach to taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. ASMPT has been the subject of takeover rumours in the past.
The trading patterns of the substantial shareholders suggest a willingness to exit. However, past privatisation rumours suggest issues with the offeror matching key shareholders' price expectations. 
A binding proposal is unlikely as the timing would be viewed as opportunistic, with the recent market rally eroding a potential takeover premium and ASMPT’s premium multiple compared to peers.


ASMPT (522 HK): Don’t Bet on a KKR Privatisation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5321:1" rel="noopener">IMAX Corp (IMAX US)</a>'s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)'s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers IMAX Corp (IMAX US)'s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. 


IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

United Kingdom

Schroders is a British multinational asset management company that provides a range of investment products and services across public and private markets. It offers actively managed solutions, mutual funds, segregated accounts, and wealth management services to retail, institutional, and high-net-worth clients globally. The company was founded in 1804 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Schroders (SDR LN)

Deposit Flight at China's Banks

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look...

Daniel Tabbush

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Jan-2025): Asia Real Estate News 2025-01-06

CPPIB sells China mall to Dajia Insurance, GDS rebrands international unit, Henderson Land expanding in Mid-Levels, Schroders markets Kowloon...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

ASMPT (522 HK): Don’t Bet on a KKR Privatisation

ASMPT's offer period for the potential privatisation ends. Reuters reports that KKR backed out due to regulatory and geopolitical risks, such as...

Arun George

IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

The IMAX China scheme has failed. The minority participation rate was 60.93%. 70.0% of disinterested shareholders voted YES, and 18.28% of all...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)