Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Airport High Tech A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.


CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group</li>
<li>The UST curve bull-steepened yesterday, alongside sliding oil prices, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The steepening move was also supported by a robust auction of 3Y notes.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST fell 6 bps to 3.79%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.30%. Equities ended marginally higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% each. That said, stock futures were trading significantly higher following the ceasefire news.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
The UST curve bull-steepened yesterday, alongside sliding oil prices, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The steepening move was also supported by a robust auction of 3Y notes.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 6 bps to 3.79%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 4 bps at 4.30%. Equities ended marginally higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% each. That said, stock futures were trading significantly higher following the ceasefire news.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group</li>
<li>UST yields fell 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, possibly on haven demand for treasuries, amid the equity market decline and rising concerns over the private credit space. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.43%, while the yield on the 10Y UST slid 5 bps to a YTD low of 4.01%. Equities retreated, led by tech stocks.</li>
<li>The US and Iran have agreed to reconvene for nuclear talks as soon as next week in Vienna, after concluding the latest round of negotiations in Geneva. Iranian officials maintained that Tehran would not allow any of its highly enriched uranium to be diluted or moved out of the country. This contrasts with Washington's demands for Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and hand over all remaining enriched uranium to the US, according to WSJ.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
UST yields fell 4-5 bps across the curve yesterday, possibly on haven demand for treasuries, amid the equity market decline and rising concerns over the private credit space. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 4 bps to 3.43%, while the yield on the 10Y UST slid 5 bps to a YTD low of 4.01%. Equities retreated, led by tech stocks.
The US and Iran have agreed to reconvene for nuclear talks as soon as next week in Vienna, after concluding the latest round of negotiations in Geneva. Iranian officials maintained that Tehran would not allow any of its highly enriched uranium to be diluted or moved out of the country. This contrasts with Washington's demands for Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and hand over all remaining enriched uranium to the US, according to WSJ.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Chinese regulators are pressing banks to step up lending and ease financing for developers as part of efforts to boost the ailing property sector.</li><li>At a meeting with China’s most important financial institutions last Friday, regulators brought up three new requirements for banks’ real estate loans to developers and homebuyers, people from several state-owned large banks attending the meeting told Caixin.</li><li>The banks were told to keep their real estate loan growth at a level no lower than the banking sector’s average real estate loan growth, loan growth to non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s real estate loan growth, and mortgage growth to individuals buying housing from non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s mortgage growth, the people said.</li></ul>

Chinese regulators are pressing banks to step up lending and ease financing for developers as part of efforts to boost the ailing property sector.At a meeting with China’s most important financial institutions last Friday, regulators brought up three new requirements for banks’ real estate loans to developers and homebuyers, people from several state-owned large banks attending the meeting told Caixin.The banks were told to keep their real estate loan growth at a level no lower than the banking sector’s average real estate loan growth, loan growth to non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s real estate loan growth, and mortgage growth to individuals buying housing from non-state-owned developers no lower than each bank’s mortgage growth, the people said.

China Drafts List of Developers Eligible for Funding, Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending 

China

Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops residential buildings, office buildings, commercial buildings, infrastructure facilities, and more. Seazen Holdings also provides market research, information consulting, and other services.

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Seazen Holdings (601155 CH)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group The UST curve bull-steepened...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group UST yields fell 4-5 bps across...

Lucror Analytics

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

China Drafts List of Developers Eligible for Funding, Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending

Chinese regulators are pressing banks to step up lending and ease financing for developers as part of efforts to boost the ailing property...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

There could be 8 adds and 3 deletes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group The UST curve bull-steepened...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group UST yields fell 4-5 bps across...

Lucror Analytics

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

China Drafts List of Developers Eligible for Funding, Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending

Chinese regulators are pressing banks to step up lending and ease financing for developers as part of efforts to boost the ailing property...

Caixin Global