'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Monday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> (already <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yamaha-motor-what-a-turnaround" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45102" rel="noopener">covered</a> by Mio) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/418/original/2020-11-10_06-23-38.png?1604957031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170418"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/420/original/2020-11-10_06-24-52.png?1604957104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170420"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>203 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.1 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 17%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS203 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 7% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.4% Quarter YoY / -5.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.1 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 17%
90 Annual • 20 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 49% Positive / 7% Neutral / 44% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 0% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/055/original/2020-05-13_05-37-45.png?1589315906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CASCADE</strong> - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/056/original/2020-05-13_06-21-24.png?1589318495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133056"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/057/original/2020-05-13_06-22-14.png?1589318598" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133057"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-</p><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the<strong> 269</strong> results announcements was <strong>117:23:129</strong>. The average change in Results Score was<strong> -0.8</strong>.</li>
<li>For the <strong>129</strong> revisions/initial forecasts, the split was <strong>39:7:83</strong>, and the average Revision Score was <strong>-4.6</strong>. Of the <strong>213</strong> companies declaring full-year results, <strong>46%</strong> made forecasts for the current year.</li>
<li>
<strong>313</strong> companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai (4523 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 269 results announcements was 117:23:129. The average change in Results Score was -0.8.
For the 129 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 39:7:83, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 213 companies declaring full-year results, 46% made forecasts for the current year.

313 companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Sony (6758 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP),  and Eisai (4523 JP). 
Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  GMO Internet (9449 JP)  and Nissin Electric (6641 JP), respectively. 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Three days ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boj-etf-buying-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38783" rel="noopener">BOJ ETF Buying Update</a> which described the impact of the BOJ buying ETFs on the underlying constituents. </p><p>This morning, the BOJ made a small clarification, or possibly amendment, to their purchasing plan. </p><p>This changes the daily purchasing constituent basket slightly, favouring the Nikkei 225 vs what the market <em>probably</em> thought it was doing since mid-March. </p><p>A quick refresher course on BOJ ETF buying constituency is below.</p>

Three days ago I wrote BOJ ETF Buying Update which described the impact of the BOJ buying ETFs on the underlying constituents. This morning, the BOJ made a small clarification, or possibly amendment, to their purchasing plan. This changes the daily purchasing constituent basket slightly, favouring the Nikkei 225 vs what the market probably thought it was doing since mid-March. A quick refresher course on BOJ ETF buying constituency is below.

Macroeconomics

<p>The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning in Asia time. </p><p>Two weeks later, true global central bank easing activity was launched. On 16 March, the BOJ announced <em>Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).</em></p><p>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-delta-i-the-boj-ups-etf-buying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37528" rel="noopener">JAPAN DELTA I - The BOJ Ups ETF Buying</a> this meant the BOJ would lift its ETF buying rate from ¥6 trillion a year to ¥12 trillion a year, including ¥11.7 trillion of purchases of TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.</p><p>In the six weeks since then, the BOJ has purchased ¥2.0038 trillion in ETFs, and has lifted its 3-month annualised purchase rate from ¥4.8trln as of the end of February to ¥13.5trln as of the end of last week. This stretches the concept of "upper limit on annualised purchases" but the BOJ has not shown reticence to buy on weakness. </p><p>An update below.</p>

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning in Asia time. Two weeks later, true global central bank easing activity was launched. On 16 March, the BOJ announced Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).As discussed in JAPAN DELTA I - The BOJ Ups ETF Buying this meant the BOJ would lift its ETF buying rate from ¥6 trillion a year to ¥12 trillion a year, including ¥11.7 trillion of purchases of TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.In the six weeks since then, the BOJ has purchased ¥2.0038 trillion in ETFs, and has lifted its 3-month annualised purchase rate from ¥4.8trln as of the end of February to ¥13.5trln as of the end of last week. This stretches the concept of "upper limit on annualised purchases" but the BOJ has not shown reticence to buy on weakness. An update below.

<p>In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of dollars, credit spreads exploded, 'risk-free' rate curves steepened dramatically, investment funds blew up, the very structure of money markets was briefly in question. Central banks around the world have acted in coordinated fashion to stem the tide of panic. The US Fed has stepped in with QE Forever, providing trillions of dollars of balance sheet and funding to stabilise systemic risk, and governments have announced trillions of dollars of stimulus packages to try to cushion economies from short-term restrictive social policies meant to stem the slow the spread of COVID-19 and lessen long-term economic damage from loss of life and work.</p><p><em>Amidst this, the Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio has gone through something of a rough patch. </em></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/379/original/Screenshot%202020-03-29%20at%206.18.38%20PM.png?1585477145" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125379"></figure><p></p><p>There is (obviously) a <em>forest-for-the-trees</em> argument to be made here. I'll stipulate that. But investors are expected to do their job come inclement weather, global pestilence, pandemic, or war - that is their job as stewards. Right now, an enormous part of that is second-guessing what <em>other</em> investors will do. </p><p>This insight is a walk through the conditions which enabled and perhaps prompted the wild swings in some of the major constituents in Nikkei 225 and what caused the major swings in Nikkei vs. TOPIX. </p>

In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of dollars, credit spreads exploded, 'risk-free' rate curves steepened dramatically, investment funds blew up, the very structure of money markets was briefly in question. Central banks around the world have acted in coordinated fashion to stem the tide of panic. The US Fed has stepped in with QE Forever, providing trillions of dollars of balance sheet and funding to stabilise systemic risk, and governments have announced trillions of dollars of stimulus packages to try to cushion economies from short-term restrictive social policies meant to stem the slow the spread of COVID-19 and lessen long-term economic damage from loss of life and work.Amidst this, the Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio has gone through something of a rough patch. There is (obviously) a forest-for-the-trees argument to be made here. I'll stipulate that. But investors are expected to do their job come inclement weather, global pestilence, pandemic, or war - that is their job as stewards. Right now, an enormous part of that is second-guessing what other investors will do. This insight is a walk through the conditions which enabled and perhaps prompted the wild swings in some of the major constituents in Nikkei 225 and what caused the major swings in Nikkei vs. TOPIX. 

Breaking Down Wild Nikkei 225 Component Moves

Japan

SECOM CO., LTD. provides comprehensive security services.  The Company provides on-line centralized security services, home security systems, and home medical services,

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP)................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate...

Campbell Gunn

BOJ ETF Buying Composition Clarified

Three days ago I wrote BOJ ETF Buying Update which described the impact of the BOJ buying ETFs on the underlying constituents. This morning, the...

Travis Lundy

BOJ ETF Buying Update

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning...

Travis Lundy

Breaking Down Wild Nikkei 225 Component Moves

In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min

• BEST & WORST • Monday's best and worst pairing is Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) (already covered by Mio) and JFE (5411 JP)................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate...

Campbell Gunn

BOJ ETF Buying Composition Clarified

Three days ago I wrote BOJ ETF Buying Update which described the impact of the BOJ buying ETFs on the underlying constituents. This morning, the...

Travis Lundy

BOJ ETF Buying Update

The BOJ lifted its daily ETF purchase rate on 2 March to a then-record ¥100bn in response to market weakness the previous week and Monday morning...

Travis Lundy

Breaking Down Wild Nikkei 225 Component Moves

In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/09 -Hamamatsu, Secom, Sumitomo Metal Min