External broker reports, Nordea

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Finance Minister Svantesson said in Harpsund in late August that the Budget Bill will contain SEK 80bn (estimated 1.2% of GDP) in discretionary spending.</li><li>The Government has so far announced detailed reforms amounting to SEK 60.0bn.</li><li>When announcing the reform space, Svantesson described the current economic environment in Sweden as a prolonged downturn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Finance Minister Svantesson said in Harpsund in late August that the Budget Bill will contain SEK 80bn (estimated 1.2% of GDP) in discretionary spending.The Government has so far announced detailed reforms amounting to SEK 60.0bn.When announcing the reform space, Svantesson described the current economic environment in Sweden as a prolonged downturn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sweden Budget Bill Preview: Households in the spotlight

<ul><li>Inflation eased somewhat in August but remained above the Riksbank’s view.</li><li>CPIF stood at 3.2% y/y and CPIF ex energy at 2.9 % y/y in August.</li><li>Thus, CPIF excluding energy was confirmed while headline CPIF was revised down by 0.1% point compared the flash released a week ago.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Inflation eased somewhat in August but remained above the Riksbank’s view.CPIF stood at 3.2% y/y and CPIF ex energy at 2.9 % y/y in August.Thus, CPIF excluding energy was confirmed while headline CPIF was revised down by 0.1% point compared the flash released a week ago.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish August final inflation review: Prices for services lower than forecast

<ul><li>We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.</li><li>The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.</li><li>Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.</li>
<li>Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.</li>
<li>A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.</li>
</ul>


The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.


Five Regimes, One Reaction Function-  What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

<ul><li>Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.</li><li>Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.</li><li>The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

Sweden

The Swedish krona is the official currency of Sweden

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Sweden Budget Bill Preview: Households in the spotlight

The Finance Minister Svantesson said in Harpsund in late August that the Budget Bill will contain SEK 80bn (estimated 1.2% of GDP) in discretionary...

Nordea

Swedish August final inflation review: Prices for services lower than forecast

Inflation eased somewhat in August but remained above the Riksbank’s view. CPIF stood at 3.2% y/y and CPIF ex energy at 2.9 % y/y in August.

Nordea

Nordea XCCY Publication: Q3-2025

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK & NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front...

Nordea

Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was...

Nordea

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