Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $<span style="color: #24a9a7;">ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136</span>
</li>
<li>We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.</li>
</ul>


A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136

We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.


Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.</li>
<li>Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. </li>
<li>Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.</li>
</ul>


From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.
Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. 
Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.


Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

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SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Southbound buying declined in Aug, but avg daily turnover hit an all-time high. Buying resumed in Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba & Hua Hong. Food...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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52-week Range

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