Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Insurers / In Depth: Falling yields pile pressure on China’s insurers</li>
<li>Malaysia /Interview: Malaysia ideally placed for high-tech development, economy minister says</li>
<li>AI /: Boost inference to follow in DeepSeek’s footsteps, AI veteran tells Chinese firms</li>
</ul>


Insurers / In Depth: Falling yields pile pressure on China’s insurers
Malaysia /Interview: Malaysia ideally placed for high-tech development, economy minister says
AI /: Boost inference to follow in DeepSeek’s footsteps, AI veteran tells Chinese firms


CX Daily: Falling Yields Pile Pressure on China’s Insurers 

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market</li>
<li>In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival</li>
<li>Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy</li>
</ul>


Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival
Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy


Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

<ul><li>Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff war and the Federal Reserve tempering expectations of a rate cut, Hong Kong stocks opened lower in the Year of the Snake, with the Hang Seng Index dropping more than 2% before recovering the 20,000 mark by midday.</li><li>Despite the turbulence, market consensus suggests that the impact of tariffs is largely priced in, with some tech stocks defying the trend.</li><li>Among major indices, the Hang Seng Index saw its steepest drop of 2.3% in the morning, hitting a low of 19,764 before closing at 20,075.</li></ul>

Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff war and the Federal Reserve tempering expectations of a rate cut, Hong Kong stocks opened lower in the Year of the Snake, with the Hang Seng Index dropping more than 2% before recovering the 20,000 mark by midday.Despite the turbulence, market consensus suggests that the impact of tariffs is largely priced in, with some tech stocks defying the trend.Among major indices, the Hang Seng Index saw its steepest drop of 2.3% in the morning, hitting a low of 19,764 before closing at 20,075.

Hong Kong Stocks Rebound After Sharp Drop as Trump’s Tariff War Weighs on Markets 

<ul>
<li>Following on from our last HK piece, we take a closer look at the tech sector</li>
<li>While the overall HSTECH index provides a good risk-reward, some</li>
<li>Individual E-commerce &amp; software names offer much more upside than  downside</li>
</ul>


Following on from our last HK piece, we take a closer look at the tech sector
While the overall HSTECH index provides a good risk-reward, some
Individual E-commerce &amp; software names offer much more upside than  downside


HSTECH Index. Identifying Individual Names with Greater Potential Upside

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (688981 CH)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Price Gauge
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SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (688981 CH)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: Falling Yields Pile Pressure on China’s Insurers

Insurers / In Depth: Falling yields pile pressure on China’s insurers China’s insurance companies reported higher investment returns in 2024...

Caixin Global

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Hong Kong Stocks Rebound After Sharp Drop as Trump’s Tariff War Weighs on Markets

Amid U. S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff war and the Federal Reserve tempering expectations of a rate cut, Hong Kong stocks opened lower...

Caixin Global

HSTECH Index. Identifying Individual Names with Greater Potential Upside

The initial market reaction to the Deepseek news is to bid up Chinese tech names, both platform and semiconductor-related. The tariff newsflow will...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: Falling Yields Pile Pressure on China’s Insurers

Insurers / In Depth: Falling yields pile pressure on China’s insurers China’s insurance companies reported higher investment returns in 2024...

Caixin Global

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

​Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Hong Kong Stocks Rebound After Sharp Drop as Trump’s Tariff War Weighs on Markets

Amid U. S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff war and the Federal Reserve tempering expectations of a rate cut, Hong Kong stocks opened lower...

Caixin Global

HSTECH Index. Identifying Individual Names with Greater Potential Upside

The initial market reaction to the Deepseek news is to bid up Chinese tech names, both platform and semiconductor-related. The tariff newsflow will...

Rikki Malik

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...