Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;</li>
<li>Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. </li>
</ul>


Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. 


Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)</li>
<li>981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Both SMIC and Hua Hong Semi posted in-line 3Q23 results but GPM pressure continued on lower UTR and ASP.</li><li>Looking ahead, both companies expected stabilizing demand on smartphone/CE recovery, and highlighted concerns on high inventory in automotive market.</li><li>On mature nodes, both expected stable demand into 2024 but lack growth momentum, and SMIC guided 8-inch UTR to remain at 50-70% in 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Both SMIC and Hua Hong Semi posted in-line 3Q23 results but GPM pressure continued on lower UTR and ASP.Looking ahead, both companies expected stabilizing demand on smartphone/CE recovery, and highlighted concerns on high inventory in automotive market.On mature nodes, both expected stable demand into 2024 but lack growth momentum, and SMIC guided 8-inch UTR to remain at 50-70% in 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – SMIC/Hua Hong Semi 3Q23: in-line revenue; ASP/GPM pressure to persist into 4Q23E

<ul>
<li>Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.</li>
<li>
Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.

Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.


Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Technology – SMIC/Hua Hong Semi 3Q23: in-line revenue; ASP/GPM pressure to persist into 4Q23E

On mature nodes, both expected stable demand into 2024 but lack growth momentum, and SMIC guided 8-inch UTR to remain at 50-70% in 2024.

CMB International

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Seven takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024 foundry shipment, blended wafer price, sales, and capex growth/decline

Andrew Lu

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

​Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Technology – SMIC/Hua Hong Semi 3Q23: in-line revenue; ASP/GPM pressure to persist into 4Q23E

On mature nodes, both expected stable demand into 2024 but lack growth momentum, and SMIC guided 8-inch UTR to remain at 50-70% in 2024.

CMB International

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Seven takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024 foundry shipment, blended wafer price, sales, and capex growth/decline

Andrew Lu

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....