Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly. </li>
<li>With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.</li>
<li>One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.</li>
</ul>


What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly. 
With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.
One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.


Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two+ years ago, the TSE announced a second phase methodology change for its main equity index TOPIX. TOPIX would change from being inclusive to being exclusive, resembling global indices. </li>
<li>The data cutoff for TOPIX methodology change rankings is 14bd away. That cutoff determines who gets in, who stays in, and who gets the boot. The annual FFW review coincides.</li>
<li>The BEST trades are the unrelated FFW trades, the INs, the LFRs, and of course, the NOT OUTs. Borderlines are interesting. Two stocks +2%? -4%?, +42/24x ADV. Or not. </li>
</ul>


Two+ years ago, the TSE announced a second phase methodology change for its main equity index TOPIX. TOPIX would change from being inclusive to being exclusive, resembling global indices. 
The data cutoff for TOPIX methodology change rankings is 14bd away. That cutoff determines who gets in, who stays in, and who gets the boot. The annual FFW review coincides.
The BEST trades are the unrelated FFW trades, the INs, the LFRs, and of course, the NOT OUTs. Borderlines are interesting. Two stocks +2%? -4%?, +42/24x ADV. Or not. 


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part III (INs Vs OUTs - Borderlines Are Trading Opps)

<ul>
<li>Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. </li>
<li>Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.</li>
<li>Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)</a> and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.</li>
</ul>


Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. 
Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.
Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP) and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.


New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

<ul>
<li>A couple of years ago, TOPIX announced a methodology change to start in October 2026. Until that point, companies which IPO on TSE Prime or move segments are TOPIX members.</li>
<li>In October 2026, using data from end-August 2026, there will be a ranking of the eligible TSE-listed (including Growth and Standard names) universe, adjusted by liquidity/ criteria.</li>
<li>Incumbent members in the top 97% of cumulative free-float market cap (FFMC) stay in. Non-members in the top 96% get in. Members outside 97% get deleted. We see 700+ changes.</li>
</ul>


A couple of years ago, TOPIX announced a methodology change to start in October 2026. Until that point, companies which IPO on TSE Prime or move segments are TOPIX members.
In October 2026, using data from end-August 2026, there will be a ranking of the eligible TSE-listed (including Growth and Standard names) universe, adjusted by liquidity/ criteria.
Incumbent members in the top 97% of cumulative free-float market cap (FFMC) stay in. Non-members in the top 96% get in. Members outside 97% get deleted. We see 700+ changes.


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part I (Methodology Madness)

<ul>
<li>Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. </li>
<li>Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.</li>
<li>Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.</li>
</ul>


Daiso is usually known for standing back and throwing mountains of plastic into cramped stores and selling it all for ¥100 per item. 
Daiso has moved on in the past few years and now has new formats that not only sell at higher prices but offer a level of quality that surprises customers.
Its latest chain, Standard Products, targets Muji and Nitori in home categories for anything smaller than a desk and is representative of the growing sophistication and reach of discount retailing.


Japan

Seria Co., Ltd. operates 100 yen chain stores nationwide.   The Company also operates franchise business.  Seria's main product line includes household goods and snacks.

Price Gauge
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Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)

Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...

Michael Causton

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part III (INs Vs OUTs - Borderlines Are Trading Opps)

The TOPIX Rebal is interesting. One pricing date, on a long flat tail of rankings, to determine whether to buy or sell 5-40x ADV. That kicks up...

Travis Lundy

New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Wage growth slowed during the pandemic in Japan but is now relentlessly on the rise again. Retailers in particular are vulnerable, especially those...

Michael Causton

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part I (Methodology Madness)

The change in TOPIX methodologyin October 2026 changes the paradigm to "normal index." It reduces the name count (probably not far enough) but...

Travis Lundy

Daiso: Going After Muji and Nitori

Daiso Sangyo is known for cheap and cheerful 100 Yen stores but is fast expansing new higher priced chains which could well cause problems not only...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

​Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...

Michael Causton

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part III (INs Vs OUTs - Borderlines Are Trading Opps)

The TOPIX Rebal is interesting. One pricing date, on a long flat tail of rankings, to determine whether to buy or sell 5-40x ADV. That kicks up...

Travis Lundy

New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Wage growth slowed during the pandemic in Japan but is now relentlessly on the rise again. Retailers in particular are vulnerable, especially those...

Michael Causton

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct 2026 - Part I (Methodology Madness)

The change in TOPIX methodologyin October 2026 changes the paradigm to "normal index." It reduces the name count (probably not far enough) but...

Travis Lundy

Daiso: Going After Muji and Nitori

Daiso Sangyo is known for cheap and cheerful 100 Yen stores but is fast expansing new higher priced chains which could well cause problems not only...

Michael Causton

Households are cutting back on spending due to inflation worries, while companies are increasing bonuses to retain staff amidst a labor shortage –...