Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Sailpoint Technologies Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.</li>
<li>The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.</li>
<li>I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.</li>
</ul>


SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.


SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ServiceNow, led by CEO Bill McDermott, has exhibited strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, consistently outstripping financial forecasts and proving its resilience and strategic acumen in a tough economic landscape.</li><li>The company reported a substantial growth in subscription revenue, up by 22.5% in constant currency, surpassing the upper end of the forecast by 200 basis points.</li><li>This growth seems to stem from widespread customer adoption and expansion of ServiceNow's integrated platforms across various enterprise functions, manifesting in several large-scale deals and increasing annual contract value from customers.</li></ul>

ServiceNow, led by CEO Bill McDermott, has exhibited strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, consistently outstripping financial forecasts and proving its resilience and strategic acumen in a tough economic landscape.The company reported a substantial growth in subscription revenue, up by 22.5% in constant currency, surpassing the upper end of the forecast by 200 basis points.This growth seems to stem from widespread customer adoption and expansion of ServiceNow's integrated platforms across various enterprise functions, manifesting in several large-scale deals and increasing annual contract value from customers.

ServiceNow Inc.: The NVIDIA Partnership & Other Factors To Capitalize On GenAI! - Major Drivers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>ServiceNow announced 3Q24 results: total revenue increased by 22% YoY to US$2.80bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income was up by 29% YoY to US$775mn, 7% ahead of consensus estimate due to top-line outperformance and opex efficiencies.</li><li>3Q24 cRPO grew by 23.5% YoY at constant currency, which was 150bps above previous guidance, driven by the large deal momentum and solid adoption of GenAI solutions.</li><li>For 4Q24E, management guided subscription revenue/cRPO to grow by 20.5/21.5% YoY on a constant currency basis, and non-GAAP OPM to be stable YoY at 29%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ServiceNow announced 3Q24 results: total revenue increased by 22% YoY to US$2.80bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income was up by 29% YoY to US$775mn, 7% ahead of consensus estimate due to top-line outperformance and opex efficiencies.3Q24 cRPO grew by 23.5% YoY at constant currency, which was 150bps above previous guidance, driven by the large deal momentum and solid adoption of GenAI solutions.For 4Q24E, management guided subscription revenue/cRPO to grow by 20.5/21.5% YoY on a constant currency basis, and non-GAAP OPM to be stable YoY at 29%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ServiceNow (NOW US) - Solid 3Q24 Results; Riding on GenAI Tailwind

<ul><li>ServiceNow's second quarter of 2024 financial results indicate strong operational and financial momentum, with notable increases in important metrics despite a backdrop of an internal investigation and leadership changes.</li><li>The management presented a robust narrative of growth, leveraging its GenAI strategy, which contributed significantly to their overall performance.</li><li>The company reported a 23% year-over-year growth in subscription revenue at constant currency, surpassing their own guidance.</li></ul>

ServiceNow's second quarter of 2024 financial results indicate strong operational and financial momentum, with notable increases in important metrics despite a backdrop of an internal investigation and leadership changes.The management presented a robust narrative of growth, leveraging its GenAI strategy, which contributed significantly to their overall performance.The company reported a 23% year-over-year growth in subscription revenue at constant currency, surpassing their own guidance.

ServiceNow Inc.: Expanding Market Reach Through Partnerships and Cloud Solutions & Other Major Drivers

United States

ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise information technology (IT) management software. The Company designs, develops, and produces prepackaged computer software, cloud services, and IT service management platform. ServiceNow serves customers throughout the United States.

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Servicenow Inc (NOW US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

SailPoint is expected to IPO in February. In my insight, I discuss valuation comps, IPO valuation and outline key risks for IPO investors.

Andrei Zakharov

ServiceNow Inc.: The NVIDIA Partnership & Other Factors To Capitalize On GenAI! - Major Drivers

ServiceNow, led by CEO Bill McDermott, has exhibited strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, consistently outstripping financial...

Baptista Research

ServiceNow (NOW US) - Solid 3Q24 Results; Riding on GenAI Tailwind

ServiceNow announced 3Q24 results: total revenue increased by 22% YoY to US$2.80bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate

CMB International

ServiceNow Inc.: Expanding Market Reach Through Partnerships and Cloud Solutions & Other Major Drivers

ServiceNow's second quarter of 2024 financial results indicate strong operational and financial momentum, with notable increases in important...

Baptista Research

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