Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

<ul>
<li>After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun</li>
<li>SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).</li>
<li>As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.</li>
</ul>


After 5.5-months, SPX broke below its 20-dayMA in decisive fashion on Friday.6569 has been our level that needs to break in order for us to believe a pullback has begun
SPX made a low of 6551 on Friday (less than 20 points or 0.3% from our 6569 level), meaning it was NOT a decisive breakdown (in time or price).
As a result, our near-term bullish outlook since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact, and it will stay that way as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569.


6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Unusual Machines’ CEO Allan Evans highlighted a significant market shift in the drone industry, driven by geopolitical restrictions on Chinese manufacturers, creating a “market vacuum” for non-Chinese, Made-in-the-USA drone components.</li><li>Unusual Machines aims to be a crucial Tier 1 supplier for backpack-sized, specialty, and FPV drones by leveraging a consumer channel to achieve competitive pricing and quality for US-made parts.</li><li>Evans anticipates rapid growth and consolidation in the US drone market, fueled by upcoming defense budgets and existing legislation, with the primary challenge being the ability to match the price performance expectations set by Chinese companies.</li></ul>

Unusual Machines’ CEO Allan Evans highlighted a significant market shift in the drone industry, driven by geopolitical restrictions on Chinese manufacturers, creating a “market vacuum” for non-Chinese, Made-in-the-USA drone components.Unusual Machines aims to be a crucial Tier 1 supplier for backpack-sized, specialty, and FPV drones by leveraging a consumer channel to achieve competitive pricing and quality for US-made parts.Evans anticipates rapid growth and consolidation in the US drone market, fueled by upcoming defense budgets and existing legislation, with the primary challenge being the ability to match the price performance expectations set by Chinese companies.

WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap - July 21, 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SES provided three major updates, including a B-sample safety test, the revenue pipeline from UAM, and the “All In on AI” strategy.</li><li>B-sample safety achievement. SES has pioneered automotive B-sample joint development for Li-Metal, with its 100Ah Li-Metal cells successfully passing the GB38031-2020 safety test.</li><li>This marks a first in the industry for large-capacity Li-Metal cells meeting global EV battery safety standards, a requirement crucial for its EV OEM partners. </li></ul>

SES provided three major updates, including a B-sample safety test, the revenue pipeline from UAM, and the “All In on AI” strategy.B-sample safety achievement. SES has pioneered automotive B-sample joint development for Li-Metal, with its 100Ah Li-Metal cells successfully passing the GB38031-2020 safety test.This marks a first in the industry for large-capacity Li-Metal cells meeting global EV battery safety standards, a requirement crucial for its EV OEM partners. 

SES AI Corp: 3Q24 Results - B-Sample Success, UAM Momentum, and AI Breakthroughs

United States

SES AI Corporation provides energy storage solutions. The Company develops and manufactures lithium-metal (Li-Metal) rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and other applications. SES AI serves customers worldwide.

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SES AI Corp (SES US)

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

6550-6569 S&P 500 Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish, But Late-October Consolidation Possible

6550-6569 $SPX Support Holding For Now; Still Bullish Near-Term and Intermediate-Term, But late-October Consolidation Possible Before Year-End...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap - July 21, 2025

Unusual Machines aims to be a crucial Tier 1 supplier for backpack-sized, specialty, and FPV drones by leveraging a consumer channel to achieve...

Water Tower Research

SES AI Corp: 3Q24 Results - B-Sample Success, UAM Momentum, and AI Breakthroughs

SES provided three major updates, including a B-sample safety test, the revenue pipeline from UAM, and the “All In on AI” strategy.

Water Tower Research

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