IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2086:1" rel="noopener">Regis Healthcare (REG AU)</a>’s (the key peer) multiples.  </li>
<li>However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Estia Health (EHE AU) confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).
The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to Regis Healthcare (REG AU)’s (the key peer) multiples.  
However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.</li>
<li>One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myer-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:577:1" rel="noopener">Myer Holdings (MYR AU)</a> significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.</li>
</ul>



Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has underperformed Myer Holdings (MYR AU) significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


The OZ Minerals (OZL AU) Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by BHP Group (BHP AU) will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.
Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Australia

SGH Limited operates as a diversified operating and investment company. The Company focuses on businesses across construction and mining equipment distribution, industrial services, energy, and media. SGH serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SGH Limited (SGH AU)

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

The offer is attractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples but light in comparison to precedent transaction multiples. At the last...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

The offer is attractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples but light in comparison to precedent transaction multiples. At the last...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) or Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ) could replace OZL in ASX 100 and Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) or Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes