Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After its initial bid of $3.00/share was rejected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, Bain returned on the 7 June with a $3.20/share non-binding proposal and was granted exclusive due diligence.</li>
<li>Estia and Bain Capital have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$3.20/share, a 50% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>A shareholder meeting is expected to be held in November with implementation expected prior to the end of 2023. </li>
</ul>


After its initial bid of $3.00/share was rejected by Estia Health (EHE AU), Bain returned on the 7 June with a $3.20/share non-binding proposal and was granted exclusive due diligence.
Estia and Bain Capital have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$3.20/share, a 50% premium to undisturbed. 
A shareholder meeting is expected to be held in November with implementation expected prior to the end of 2023. 


<ul>
<li>On the 23 March, aged care provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> announced Bain Capital's $3.00/share non-binding proposal. 12 days later, Estia rejected this indicative Offer. </li>
<li>Bain has returned with a A$3.20/share proposal, inclusive of a fully franked dividend up to A$0.12/share. A process deed has been entered into, and exclusive due diligence has been granted. </li>
<li>Trading at a gross spread of 10.7% with an indicative completion in early 4Q23.</li>
</ul>


On the 23 March, aged care provider Estia Health (EHE AU) announced Bain Capital's $3.00/share non-binding proposal. 12 days later, Estia rejected this indicative Offer. 
Bain has returned with a A$3.20/share proposal, inclusive of a fully franked dividend up to A$0.12/share. A process deed has been entered into, and exclusive due diligence has been granted. 
Trading at a gross spread of 10.7% with an indicative completion in early 4Q23.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD46.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road Resour, Brambles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD46.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road Resour, Brambles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 7th): Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a> announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080:1" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Singaporean construction firm Lian Beng (LBG SP) announced a voluntary unconditional cash Offer from the controlling Ong family,
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), and Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

Australia

SGH Limited operates as a diversified operating and investment company. The Company focuses on businesses across construction and mining equipment distribution, industrial services, energy, and media. SGH serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SGH Limited (SGH AU)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Estia & Bain Enter Into Scheme Agreement

A five-year high price is reasonable. At a 3.4% gross spread, get involved here and on any weakness. That spread is even more attractive for those...

David Blennerhassett

Estia Health: Bain Capital Ups Its NBIO

A five-year high consideration price is reasonable. At a 10.7% gross spread, get involved here and on any weakness. More so for those who can take...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 7th): Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liann Beng, Newcrest, OZ Minerals, Glory Star New Media

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)