Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Wealthy Japanese staying in Japan, more people acquiring wealth, a return of inbound tourists and better merchandising and store investment. </li>
<li>All combined to help department stores rebound strongly in 2022 but there has been a sharp shift in where department stores make their money.</li>
<li>Further growth is expected but only for some, and in some product categories much more than others.</li>
</ul>


Wealthy Japanese staying in Japan, more people acquiring wealth, a return of inbound tourists and better merchandising and store investment. 
All combined to help department stores rebound strongly in 2022 but there has been a sharp shift in where department stores make their money.
Further growth is expected but only for some, and in some product categories much more than others.


Japan Department Stores: Transformation Amidst a Recovery

<ul>
<li>With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. </li>
<li>This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.</li>
<li>The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.</li>
</ul>


With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. 
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.


Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Good Friday holidays. US Economy proving to be pretty resilient. Non-farm payrolls showed hiring continued to be strong in March. NFP was 236k vs Cons 230k. Telsa cuts prices(again)</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash as US Equity(Cash) markets closed. USDJPY 132.2. Likely see some beta led reversals of losses seen in the latter half of last week.</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Kuroda bids Farewell after 10 years as BOJ Governor. He created a new playbook on monetary policy that will be studied for years. Net-net, positive outcome.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Good Friday holidays. US Economy proving to be pretty resilient. Non-farm payrolls showed hiring continued to be strong in March. NFP was 236k vs Cons 230k. Telsa cuts prices(again)
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash as US Equity(Cash) markets closed. USDJPY 132.2. Likely see some beta led reversals of losses seen in the latter half of last week.
NUGGET.  Kuroda bids Farewell after 10 years as BOJ Governor. He created a new playbook on monetary policy that will be studied for years. Net-net, positive outcome.


Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore - Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Bullard Calms Recession fears; SPX stabilizes; 2Yr Yields Rise: Non Farm Payrolls in Focus ahead of Good Friday Holidays </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative;  JP Corporates doubles buying of own stocks in 2022; Point 72 JP expansion</li>
<li>NUGGET.  KEPCO reconfirmed its plan to bring 2 addl Nuclear power plans online in a few months. The profit uptick will be considerable. We maintain KEPCO as a TOP PICK.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Bullard Calms Recession fears; SPX stabilizes; 2Yr Yields Rise: Non Farm Payrolls in Focus ahead of Good Friday Holidays 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.7; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative;  JP Corporates doubles buying of own stocks in 2022; Point 72 JP expansion
NUGGET.  KEPCO reconfirmed its plan to bring 2 addl Nuclear power plans online in a few months. The profit uptick will be considerable. We maintain KEPCO as a TOP PICK.


Good Morning Japan |Fed's Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Japan Department Stores: Transformation Amidst a Recovery

Department stores in Japan have rebounded to close to 2019 levels but the sector as a whole will return to genteel contraction once reached. Within...

Michael Causton

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore - Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?

SDJPY 132.2, weaker post US Non Farm Payrolls. We are likely to see some beta-led reversals of losses observed in the latter half of last week....

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Fed's Bullard Offers Comfort; NUGGET: Kansai Electric- Watch the Nuke Restarts !

Bullard Calms Markets; ex-IMF Chief Economist Blanchard says BOJ to remain accomodative; Japanese Corporates doubles buying of own stocks

Mark Chadwick

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