Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/201/original/File%202020-07-10%204%2058%2031.jpeg?1594328270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145201"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World In Data</div>
COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month nationwide high of 354. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/202/original/2020-07-10_06-33-39.png?1594330447" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145202"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/203/original/2020-07-10_06-37-00.png?1594330642" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
NEW LOWS - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>31 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -4.9</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.9ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Our World In Data
COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month nationwide high of 354. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.
Source • Japan Analytics
NEW LOWS - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.
DAILY STATS
31 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.9

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.9ppt
 12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are already predicting a completely new world in one way or another, but the reality is likely more prosaic.What is certain is that the Japanese consumer economy will recover and it is just a question of when.The most likely effect of the crisis is that it will catalyse a period of change already in process and which also happens to be one of the most dramatic and far-reaching seen so far in retail.But there is one trend that may well reverse as more businesses go under or contract, providing relief for many retailers: the labour shortage and rise in wages.The following offers an in-depth review of both the impact of the current crisis and implications as well as the long-term trends in Japanese retailing, providing insight into which sectors, formats and specific companies will win and lose in the next three years.For a short read, we provide the conclusions and winners and losers first.

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are already predicting a completely new world in one way or another, but the reality is likely more prosaic.What is certain is that the Japanese consumer economy will recover and it is just a question of when.The most likely effect of the crisis is that it will catalyse a period of change already in process and which also happens to be one of the most dramatic and far-reaching seen so far in retail.But there is one trend that may well reverse as more businesses go under or contract, providing relief for many retailers: the labour shortage and rise in wages.The following offers an in-depth review of both the impact of the current crisis and implications as well as the long-term trends in Japanese retailing, providing insight into which sectors, formats and specific companies will win and lose in the next three years.For a short read, we provide the conclusions and winners and losers first.

After Covid: The Future for Japanese Retail: Winners & Losers

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 18 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 18 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 June 2026)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of high unemployment and collapsing demand this may not always be possible.We have taken a look at the change in short interest on Asian consumer staples names across Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Japan to identify stocks that the market is betting on and against.There is a fair bit of variability among the HK and Taiwan stocks, short interest has been broadly lower in Korea and has been plummeting in Japan. Investors can use the data as one of the inputs in identifying stocks that could benefit from an increase in inflation in the near/medium term.

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month...

Campbell Gunn

After Covid: The Future for Japanese Retail: Winners & Losers

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are...

Michael Causton

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 June 2026)

Discover 18 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month...

Campbell Gunn

After Covid: The Future for Japanese Retail: Winners & Losers

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are...

Michael Causton

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 June 2026)

​Discover 18 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Consumer Staples - Inflation Hedge?

Consumer Staples are a good inflation hedge, but only if they can pass on the increase in raw material costs to end consumers. In a scenario of...

Brian Freitas

Discover 18 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.