Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.</li>
<li>The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.</li>
<li>If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.


Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s share price has remained below ¥6,600 since the end of its bull run in March 2023.</li>
<li>Short-Term optimism hinges on a substantial earnings beat, but the US business challenges make it unlikely.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I faces valuation risks, trading near peak multiples with diminishing growth prospects.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s share price has remained below ¥6,600 since the end of its bull run in March 2023.
Short-Term optimism hinges on a substantial earnings beat, but the US business challenges make it unlikely.
Seven &amp; I faces valuation risks, trading near peak multiples with diminishing growth prospects.


Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected - fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso</li>
<li>JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence's Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity.  Want to raise wages - funnel labor into high productivity firms !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected - fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August
JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso
JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence's Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity.  Want to raise wages - funnel labor into high productivity firms !


Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Seven &amp; I has finally sold Sogo Seibu to Fortress Investments.</li>
<li>It will be pleased to have offloaded a loss-making format it never really understood but at a cost – it will write off more than ¥90 billion in loans.</li>
<li>Fortress will immediately sell the land under Seibu Ikebukuro and some other assets to Yodobashi with suggestions of major redevelopment of both Ikebukuro and Shibuya.</li>
</ul>


Seven &amp; I has finally sold Sogo Seibu to Fortress Investments.
It will be pleased to have offloaded a loss-making format it never really understood but at a cost – it will write off more than ¥90 billion in loans.
Fortress will immediately sell the land under Seibu Ikebukuro and some other assets to Yodobashi with suggestions of major redevelopment of both Ikebukuro and Shibuya.


Bargain Sale at Sogo Seibu as Seven & I Finally Capitulates

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: US Stock Cap strong week with positive gains; Payrolls jumped, but so did Unemployment rate=past peak rates ?  China slowdown fueling worries about Contagion. 
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore Wind; Japan-UK to cooperate in next Gen nuclear plants; ARM Pricing ~50 billion USD. 
JAPAN X: Daikin and Mitsubishi Electric Poised to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth. 


Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

US Equities fall WoW on Strong Economy - fueling fears of persistence in high rates; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle...

Mark Chadwick

Bargain Sale at Sogo Seibu as Seven & I Finally Capitulates

Seven & I sells Sogo Seibu to Fortress Investments, but has to forgive ¥90 billion in debt. Fortress plans to sell the Ikebukuro land and other...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Mixed US Payrolls; US Equities close with gains; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

​Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

​Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

US Equities fall WoW on Strong Economy - fueling fears of persistence in high rates; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle...

Mark Chadwick

Bargain Sale at Sogo Seibu as Seven & I Finally Capitulates

​Seven & I sells Sogo Seibu to Fortress Investments, but has to forgive ¥90 billion in debt. Fortress plans to sell the Ikebukuro land and other...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan|US Stocks Cap Strong Week; JAPAN X: Daikin, Melco to Benefit from US Heat Pump Growth

Mixed US Payrolls; US Equities close with gains; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.2; Japan Govt to Shorten Assessment Period for Off-Shore...

Mark Chadwick

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.

Seven & I sells Sogo Seibu to Fortress Investments, but has to forgive ¥90 billion in debt. Fortress plans to sell the Ikebukuro land and other...