'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/943/original/2020-02-01_07-00-20.png?1580599138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115943"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/944/original/2020-02-02_08-38-57.png?1580600364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115944"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/946/original/2020-02-02_09-01-27.png?1580601710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115946"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more apparent last Friday. On the second-busiest day of this quarter's 'calendar', there were 407 results and 114 forecasts or revisions announcements. The Results Score declined by nine basis points to 0.68, the lowest since April 2017 while the Forecast/Revision Score fell by 15bps and was last this low in December 2016. The 'upside gap' between the market and both Scores is still larger than at any time since our data series commenced and needs to close further. The Bank of Japan bought ETFs on three days last week and will be back in action on Monday.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now emerging.  The former are lead by Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Machinery, Technology Hardware, and Electrical Equipment, with the losers being Transportation, Consumer Services, Healthcare, Utilities and Building Materials.  Of the top ten positive changes in all-cap Results Score on Friday, eight were in the financial sectors. A shift in earnings momentum leadership from consumer to finance and technology-related Sectors is in train.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Transport System / Equity Bottom-Up

The shares of Hitachi Transport System have had a good run, more than doubling over three years to an all-time high of ¥3,545 on July 2, 2019 before dropping back 11% to close at ¥3,165 on September 27. At this price, they are selling at 16x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-20 and 1.6x book value as of the end of June. These valuations are near the top of their 5-year ranges, but calculations by Japan Analytics indicate 10% potential upside to a forecast-based no-growth valuation (see charts below). The rise in the share price has been driven by efficiency gains in the company's domestic and global logistics businesses. In the four fiscal years to Mar-19, revenues increased 4.5% to ¥708.8 billion, operating profit increased 45.3% to ¥31.2 billion, the operating margin rose from 3.2% to 4.4%, and ROE rose from 7.6% to 10.2%. In the three months to June, operating profit increased 7.0% year-on-year on a 2.9% decline in revenues. Revenues declined due to a change in the scope of consolidation, declining volumes in the auto parts business and the appreciation of the yen. For FY Mar-20 as a whole, management is guiding for a 1.0% increase in operating profit to ¥31.5 billion on a 1.2% decline in revenues to ¥700 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 4.5%. By FY Mar-22, management expects operating profit to reach ¥36.0 billion on revenues of ¥720 billion, the operating margin rising to 5.0% due to a combination of growth and further improvements in the cost structure.  M&amp;A could lift revenues to ¥800 billion, although the timing of acquisitions and their profitability are uncertain.1Q results suggest that full-year guidance is conservative, while further outsourcing of global supply chain management - perhaps accelerated by the changes forced on supply chains by the trade war - should support management's longer-term plans. The biggest risks to those plans and to investors appear to be recession and yen appreciation.

The shares of Hitachi Transport System have had a good run, more than doubling over three years to an all-time high of ¥3,545 on July 2, 2019 before dropping back 11% to close at ¥3,165 on September 27. At this price, they are selling at 16x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-20 and 1.6x book value as of the end of June. These valuations are near the top of their 5-year ranges, but calculations by Japan Analytics indicate 10% potential upside to a forecast-based no-growth valuation (see charts below). The rise in the share price has been driven by efficiency gains in the company's domestic and global logistics businesses. In the four fiscal years to Mar-19, revenues increased 4.5% to ¥708.8 billion, operating profit increased 45.3% to ¥31.2 billion, the operating margin rose from 3.2% to 4.4%, and ROE rose from 7.6% to 10.2%. In the three months to June, operating profit increased 7.0% year-on-year on a 2.9% decline in revenues. Revenues declined due to a change in the scope of consolidation, declining volumes in the auto parts business and the appreciation of the yen. For FY Mar-20 as a whole, management is guiding for a 1.0% increase in operating profit to ¥31.5 billion on a 1.2% decline in revenues to ¥700 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 4.5%. By FY Mar-22, management expects operating profit to reach ¥36.0 billion on revenues of ¥720 billion, the operating margin rising to 5.0% due to a combination of growth and further improvements in the cost structure.  M&amp;A could lift revenues to ¥800 billion, although the timing of acquisitions and their profitability are uncertain.1Q results suggest that full-year guidance is conservative, while further outsourcing of global supply chain management - perhaps accelerated by the changes forced on supply chains by the trade war - should support management's longer-term plans. The biggest risks to those plans and to investors appear to be recession and yen appreciation.

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP): Uptrend Should Resume

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suruga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1">Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)</a>‘s balance-sheet and reputation caused by its catastrophic involvement in the fraudulent ‘share house’ debacle and other property investment lending disasters.  FY3/2019 consolidated net losses exceeded ¥97.1 billion (US$892.6 million).  Roughly 60% of the bank’s entire ¥1.7 trillion investment loan portfolio is deemed to have been “inappropriate”, but not necessarily irrecoverable. The bank is cautiously guiding for consolidated net profits in FY3/2020 of ¥10.5 billion, but the dividend remains suspended indefinitely and much uncertainty remains.Heads continue to roll: at least 117 staff have been disciplined, according to media reports.  At the Board level, 5 senior Board members (including then-chairman Mitsuyoshi Okano and then-president Akihiro Yoneyama) resigned on 7 September 2018.  After the upcoming AGM at the end of June, only incumbent president Michio Arikuni is likely to remain of the current management team: all others are expected to step down, including four external directors, as the bank seeks to put even further distance between it and any lingering perception of influence from the Okano Family.Suruga Bank’s share price is currently drifting in the mid-¥400 range.  It is down over 65% YoY.  There is perhaps some comfort to any remaining loyal shareholders in the knowledge that the stock is down a ‘mere’ 19% in the last three months.  That said, potential ‘white knights’, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, are biding their time and not rushing to invest, suggesting they, too, expect the stock price to go lower still.  Caveat emptor (May the buyer beware!)

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)‘s balance-sheet and reputation caused by its catastrophic involvement in the fraudulent ‘share house’ debacle and other property investment lending disasters.  FY3/2019 consolidated net losses exceeded ¥97.1 billion (US$892.6 million).  Roughly 60% of the bank’s entire ¥1.7 trillion investment loan portfolio is deemed to have been “inappropriate”, but not necessarily irrecoverable. The bank is cautiously guiding for consolidated net profits in FY3/2020 of ¥10.5 billion, but the dividend remains suspended indefinitely and much uncertainty remains.Heads continue to roll: at least 117 staff have been disciplined, according to media reports.  At the Board level, 5 senior Board members (including then-chairman Mitsuyoshi Okano and then-president Akihiro Yoneyama) resigned on 7 September 2018.  After the upcoming AGM at the end of June, only incumbent president Michio Arikuni is likely to remain of the current management team: all others are expected to step down, including four external directors, as the bank seeks to put even further distance between it and any lingering perception of influence from the Okano Family.Suruga Bank’s share price is currently drifting in the mid-¥400 range.  It is down over 65% YoY.  There is perhaps some comfort to any remaining loyal shareholders in the knowledge that the stock is down a ‘mere’ 19% in the last three months.  That said, potential ‘white knights’, including Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), are biding their time and not rushing to invest, suggesting they, too, expect the stock price to go lower still.  Caveat emptor (May the buyer beware!)

Suruga Bank (8358 JP):  Purging the Augean Stables 2019: Part 7 - Executive Executions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Japan

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

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SG Holdings (9143 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 31st January ►6861 ▲9433 8473 ▼3099 9062 4922

30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - The downward trends in both our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Scores that have been building all week are now more...

Campbell Gunn

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP): Uptrend Should Resume

The shares of Hitachi Transport System have had a good run, more than doubling over three years to an all-time high of ¥3,545 on July 2, 2019...

Scott Foster

Suruga Bank (8358 JP): Purging the Augean Stables 2019: Part 7 - Executive Executions

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)‘s balance-sheet and reputation...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments...

Vermilion Research

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