Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

<ul><li>Who’d have thought that the pound, universally ridiculed by the FT’ies (lefties who read the Financial Times), would be on the verge of a 6-year high? Only the Swiss Franc and the Singapore Dollar, both financial safe havens, are ahead of the pound over this post-Brexit period.</li><li>The pound has also been doing well against emerging market currencies, with just the Mexican Peso ahead.</li><li>With consistently high real interest rates (rates above inflation), the Mex has been a standout performer, even ahead of the Swiss Franc.</li></ul>

Who’d have thought that the pound, universally ridiculed by the FT’ies (lefties who read the Financial Times), would be on the verge of a 6-year high? Only the Swiss Franc and the Singapore Dollar, both financial safe havens, are ahead of the pound over this post-Brexit period.The pound has also been doing well against emerging market currencies, with just the Mexican Peso ahead.With consistently high real interest rates (rates above inflation), the Mex has been a standout performer, even ahead of the Swiss Franc.

The British Pound Flirts with a 6-Year High

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.</li>
<li>USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.</li>
<li>USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.</li>
</ul>


USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.
USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.
USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.


Singapore

The Singapore dollar is the official currency of the Republic of Singapore. 

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SGD (USDSGD CURNCY)

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

The British Pound Flirts with a 6-Year High

With consistently high real interest rates (rates above inflation), the Mex has been a standout performer, even ahead of the Swiss Franc.

ByteTree Asset Management

Asian FX Action Levels

USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a...

Thomas Schroeder

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