Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> conference reiterated a bullish outlook with 20% revenue/20% profit growth for FY23 and &gt;20% 3-year-CAGR revenue growth from FY23e-25e. </li>
<li>While the company sacrificed margin by 400 bps YoY to 20% GPM to grow Q1 FY23 revenues, they guided for improvements in subsequent quarters (this is a big positive).</li>
<li>Trading at 13.5x/10.5x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and execution remains the key to achieving a higher multiple as it achieves its high growth plans.</li>
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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) conference reiterated a bullish outlook with 20% revenue/20% profit growth for FY23 and &gt;20% 3-year-CAGR revenue growth from FY23e-25e. 
While the company sacrificed margin by 400 bps YoY to 20% GPM to grow Q1 FY23 revenues, they guided for improvements in subsequent quarters (this is a big positive).
Trading at 13.5x/10.5x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and execution remains the key to achieving a higher multiple as it achieves its high growth plans.


Shakeys Pizza: Q1 2023 Concall Highlights, Bullish, Set For A Big Move

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> reported a 28% YoY/26% YoY sales/net profit increase for Q3 FY23 due to a sales softening in September. </li>
<li>Sales are expected to strengthen into Q4 as there is a seasonal uplift, although the QoQ increase is not expected to be in line with previous years.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 12.9x/9.9x PE FY23e/24e and will continue to see double-digit CAGR sales momentum.  The management retained its &gt;30% YoY growth target for FY23e. </li>
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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a 28% YoY/26% YoY sales/net profit increase for Q3 FY23 due to a sales softening in September. 
Sales are expected to strengthen into Q4 as there is a seasonal uplift, although the QoQ increase is not expected to be in line with previous years.
The stock trades at 12.9x/9.9x PE FY23e/24e and will continue to see double-digit CAGR sales momentum.  The management retained its &gt;30% YoY growth target for FY23e. 


Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) Concall Q3 2023: Soft, But Guidance Intact/Brace For Q4 High Season

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> came in higher than analysts on earnings for FY22, posting an 873 mn peso bottom line number (vs. a 728 mn peso Bloomberg consensus).   </li>
<li>Systemwide sales grew 101% YoY to 14.1 bn pesos, with 4.5 bn pesos in the last quarter, up 113% YoY. Excluding Potato Corner, growth for the year was 37% YoY.</li>
<li>Based on their guidance for FY23 of 20% growth on the topline/bottom line, the stock trades at 13.7x FY23e PE with future growth in the mid-teens CAGR. </li>
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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) came in higher than analysts on earnings for FY22, posting an 873 mn peso bottom line number (vs. a 728 mn peso Bloomberg consensus).   
Systemwide sales grew 101% YoY to 14.1 bn pesos, with 4.5 bn pesos in the last quarter, up 113% YoY. Excluding Potato Corner, growth for the year was 37% YoY.
Based on their guidance for FY23 of 20% growth on the topline/bottom line, the stock trades at 13.7x FY23e PE with future growth in the mid-teens CAGR. 


Shakeys Pizza: Q4 2022 Concall Guides For Teens CAGR Revenue Growth, Margins Flat

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> reported a strong SWS of 77% YoY in H1 and 121% YoY in Q2 2022. Excluding Potato Corner (PC), recovery tracked &gt;90% of 2019 levels. </li>
<li>The management guided that ex-PC recovery was over 100% in May and July, and numbers will improve with a resurgence in people at work, resulting in an upside to SWS.</li>
<li>We see margin upside as dine-in numbers are set to increase in H2 and the company beds down its PC acquisition; the stock trades at 16x/10x FY22/FY23e.</li>
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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a strong SWS of 77% YoY in H1 and 121% YoY in Q2 2022. Excluding Potato Corner (PC), recovery tracked &gt;90% of 2019 levels. 
The management guided that ex-PC recovery was over 100% in May and July, and numbers will improve with a resurgence in people at work, resulting in an upside to SWS.
We see margin upside as dine-in numbers are set to increase in H2 and the company beds down its PC acquisition; the stock trades at 16x/10x FY22/FY23e.


Shakey's Pizza: Q2 2022 Recovery Far Better Than Expectations, Management Guidance Extremely Bullish

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<li>Although we were more optimistic about FY22, we still see recovery backed by a very healthy momentum in Q1 2022 with 33% YoY systemwide sales (mid-teens ex-Potato Corner).</li>
<li>EBITDA margins were weaker in Q1 2022 at 18.2% (with Jan/Feb 2022 restrictions), but management guided a sequential improvement QoQ and a 20-21% EBITDA margin for FY22. </li>
<li>The stock trades at 16.6x FY12 and 11.1x FY23 on more conservatively guided numbers. <em>(see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shakey-s-pizza-high-conviction-three-bagger-management-call-provides-superb-guidance-for-fy22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:68211" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22</a> ) </em>
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Although we were more optimistic about FY22, we still see recovery backed by a very healthy momentum in Q1 2022 with 33% YoY systemwide sales (mid-teens ex-Potato Corner).
EBITDA margins were weaker in Q1 2022 at 18.2% (with Jan/Feb 2022 restrictions), but management guided a sequential improvement QoQ and a 20-21% EBITDA margin for FY22. 
The stock trades at 16.6x FY12 and 11.1x FY23 on more conservatively guided numbers. (see: Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22 ) 



Shakeys Pizza: Encouraging Q1 2022, Despite Headwinds

Philippines

Shakeys Pizza Asia Ventures Inc operates Shakey's pizza chain of full-service restaurant in the Philippines 

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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)

Shakeys Pizza: Q1 2023 Concall Highlights, Bullish, Set For A Big Move

Trading at 13.5x/10.5x FY23e/24e PE, Shakey's Pizza is cheap, and Q1FY23 guidance on the results briefing of 20% 3-5 year CAGR growth, gives us...

Sameer Taneja