Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings inflection is underway: Spot gold (&gt;USD 4,400/oz), rising self-mined output (60t in 2025E), and mix shift drive a step-change in EBITDA and cash flow from FY25 onward.</li>
<li>Valuation disconnect persists: Shandong Gold trades at ~3× EV/EBITDA—lowest in the China/HK gold peer set—despite leverage peaking in FY25 and de-gearing visible into FY26.</li>
<li>Index mechanics mask upside: Exclusion from GDX due to revenue-purity rules limits passive flows, leaving scope for active-driven re-rating as earnings and margins normalise</li>
</ul>


Earnings inflection is underway: Spot gold (&gt;USD 4,400/oz), rising self-mined output (60t in 2025E), and mix shift drive a step-change in EBITDA and cash flow from FY25 onward.
Valuation disconnect persists: Shandong Gold trades at ~3× EV/EBITDA—lowest in the China/HK gold peer set—despite leverage peaking in FY25 and de-gearing visible into FY26.
Index mechanics mask upside: Exclusion from GDX due to revenue-purity rules limits passive flows, leaving scope for active-driven re-rating as earnings and margins normalise


Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shandong Gold Mining   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.</li>
<li>The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

<ul>
<li>EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19% by FY27, with EPS rising from CNY 0.51 to CNY 1.10, supported by operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment.</li>
<li>Shandong Gold aims for 70–80 tonnes of self-mined gold by 2027, with FY25–FY27 revenue projected to reach CNY118.8 billion at $3,400/oz gold price, driven by volume growth &amp; higher prices.</li>
<li>Commodity price volatility, geopolitical risks in international ventures (Argentina, Greece), and state ownership influence pose challenges to margins and shareholder value.</li>
</ul>


EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19% by FY27, with EPS rising from CNY 0.51 to CNY 1.10, supported by operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment.
Shandong Gold aims for 70–80 tonnes of self-mined gold by 2027, with FY25–FY27 revenue projected to reach CNY118.8 billion at $3,400/oz gold price, driven by volume growth &amp; higher prices.
Commodity price volatility, geopolitical risks in international ventures (Argentina, Greece), and state ownership influence pose challenges to margins and shareholder value.


Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Tencent, CMB, Alibaba, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Tencent, CMB, Alibaba, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, BYD.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Dec 12th): Xiaomi Inflows & Tencent/Alibaba Outflows

China

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold mining and production businesses. The Company provides gold exploration, processing, and outsourcing gold smelting services. Shandong Gold Mining also conducts gold jewelry purification and non-ferrous metal production businesses.

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Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)

Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Rahul Jain

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Rahul Jain

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Dec 12th): Xiaomi Inflows & Tencent/Alibaba Outflows

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, Tencent, CMB, Alibaba, Zhejiang Leapmotor...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

​Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Rahul Jain

Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) - Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

​Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.

Rahul Jain

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Dec 12th): Xiaomi Inflows & Tencent/Alibaba Outflows

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, Tencent, CMB, Alibaba, Zhejiang Leapmotor...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Shandong Gold forecasts significant growth in revenue and EPS by 2027, but faces challenges from commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.