Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (600547 CH)

<ul>
<li>Earnings inflection is underway: Spot gold (&gt;USD 4,400/oz), rising self-mined output (60t in 2025E), and mix shift drive a step-change in EBITDA and cash flow from FY25 onward.</li>
<li>Valuation disconnect persists: Shandong Gold trades at ~3× EV/EBITDA—lowest in the China/HK gold peer set—despite leverage peaking in FY25 and de-gearing visible into FY26.</li>
<li>Index mechanics mask upside: Exclusion from GDX due to revenue-purity rules limits passive flows, leaving scope for active-driven re-rating as earnings and margins normalise</li>
</ul>


Earnings inflection is underway: Spot gold (&gt;USD 4,400/oz), rising self-mined output (60t in 2025E), and mix shift drive a step-change in EBITDA and cash flow from FY25 onward.
Valuation disconnect persists: Shandong Gold trades at ~3× EV/EBITDA—lowest in the China/HK gold peer set—despite leverage peaking in FY25 and de-gearing visible into FY26.
Index mechanics mask upside: Exclusion from GDX due to revenue-purity rules limits passive flows, leaving scope for active-driven re-rating as earnings and margins normalise


Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

China

Shandong Gold Mining is a Chinese company primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, processing, and sale of gold and gold products. It also deals with non-ferrous metals like silver, copper, lead, and zinc, and manufactures specialized equipment for gold mines. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Jinan, People's Republic of China.

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Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)

Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Rahul Jain

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics

​Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Rahul Jain

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Gold miner Shandong Gold's earnings set to surge from FY25, but undervaluation persists due to index exclusion and low EV/EBITDA multiple.

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.