HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> logged a 40.1% growth in reported profit and a 36.5% increase in new orders in 3Q22, both represent excellent sequential momentum.</li>
<li>A 0.5pp 3Q22 gross margin expansion demonstrated order execution and cost control strengths. We also forecast end-FY22 backlog at 1.8x FY22F revenue, well securing outlook.  </li>
<li>DEC is set to see accelerated growth momentum from rising power storage, particularly pumped storage, demand in the medium term. Yet, it only trades on cheap 8.1x FY23F PER.</li>
</ul>



Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) logged a 40.1% growth in reported profit and a 36.5% increase in new orders in 3Q22, both represent excellent sequential momentum.
A 0.5pp 3Q22 gross margin expansion demonstrated order execution and cost control strengths. We also forecast end-FY22 backlog at 1.8x FY22F revenue, well securing outlook.  
DEC is set to see accelerated growth momentum from rising power storage, particularly pumped storage, demand in the medium term. Yet, it only trades on cheap 8.1x FY23F PER.


Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Surge in 3Q22 Profit and Acceleration of New Orders

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Tech / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 16 potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> at the December rebalance. There are other stocks very close to the cutoffs.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.04% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.4bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes, though the gap has narrowed in the last few weeks. We'd position for outperformance post the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 16 potential changes to the CSI 300 Index at the December rebalance. There are other stocks very close to the cutoffs.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.04% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.4bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes, though the gap has narrowed in the last few weeks. We'd position for outperformance post the end of the review period.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes and Close Names

<ul>
<li>Strong new orders in 2H22 and FY23 are the drivers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> after it posted a 31.6% earnings growth and new orders of Rmb36.7bn in 1H22.</li>
<li>Demand outlook for its major products including coal-fired, gas turbine, renewable, pumped storage and hydrogen energy are all very encouraging. </li>
<li>We estimate order backlog will equal to 1.6x FY22F revenue by year-end. Despite solid outperformance, DEC is still cheap at 12.6x and 9.8x PERs for FY22 and FY23.</li>
</ul>


Strong new orders in 2H22 and FY23 are the drivers for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) after it posted a 31.6% earnings growth and new orders of Rmb36.7bn in 1H22.
Demand outlook for its major products including coal-fired, gas turbine, renewable, pumped storage and hydrogen energy are all very encouraging. 
We estimate order backlog will equal to 1.6x FY22F revenue by year-end. Despite solid outperformance, DEC is still cheap at 12.6x and 9.8x PERs for FY22 and FY23.


Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index</a> over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Past the midway mark in the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.32% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.55bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index over the last few months, with the outperformance widening over the last few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

China

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited manufactures power generation equipment. The Company produces and sells thermal generator set, nuclear power units, wind power equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, and other products. Shanghai Electric Group also manufactures environmental protection equipment.

Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

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Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Surge in 3Q22 Profit and Acceleration of New Orders

DEC has impressive 3Q22 profit and accelerated new order momentum. It is set to ride on China's policy to build a "technologically strong country"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes and Close Names

We forecast 16 changes for the CSI300 Index at the December rebal. There are a few other stocks that are very close to the cutoff thresholds. One...

Brian Freitas

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle

Outlook of coal-fired, gas turbine, renewable, pumped storage and hydrogen energy segments all points to strong order momentum after a moderate...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues & Could Keep Going

Midway through the review period, we see 18 potential changes to the CSI300 Index at the December rebalance. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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