HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-cns-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35945:1" rel="noopener">LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS)</a> seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco Corp (7408 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU). 



Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

<ul>
<li>The past “infrastructure-driven demand model” in medical devices has become “an updated model”. The future reasonable demand for medical devices may fall back to a quarter of pre anti-corruption levels.</li>
<li>Top innovative pharmaceutical companies worth investing in need to meet certain conditions. Currently, there is still a gap between Chinese pharmaceutical companies and companies like Regeneron in various aspects.</li>
<li>Henlius is of great strategic significance for Fosun Pharma, which actually increases the privatization success rate. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be based on PE/VC firms not traditional pharma.</li>
</ul>


The past “infrastructure-driven demand model” in medical devices has become “an updated model”. The future reasonable demand for medical devices may fall back to a quarter of pre anti-corruption levels.
Top innovative pharmaceutical companies worth investing in need to meet certain conditions. Currently, there is still a gap between Chinese pharmaceutical companies and companies like Regeneron in various aspects.
Henlius is of great strategic significance for Fosun Pharma, which actually increases the privatization success rate. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be based on PE/VC firms not traditional pharma.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

<ul>
<li>It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.</li>
<li>Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.</li>
<li>Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.</li>
</ul>


It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.
Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.
Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.


Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their "dissatisfaction" by opposing the privatization.</li>
<li>Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.</li>
<li>There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.</li>
</ul>


Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their "dissatisfaction" by opposing the privatization.
Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

China

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Canvest, Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Haitong/GJTA, Jamco, Macromill, 7&i,...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

Business model of medical devices is shifting, leading to potential underperformance. There's a gap between Chinese Biotech and top players....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

Fosun's low-priced privatization of Henlius face opposition from investors who demand clarity on relisting plan to protect their interests.Deal...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) - Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Canvest, Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Haitong/GJTA, Jamco, Macromill, 7&i,...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.8) - Fosun Pharma, Medical Device Outlook, Biotech Investment Criteria

Business model of medical devices is shifting, leading to potential underperformance. There's a gap between Chinese Biotech and top players....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

​Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

​Fosun's low-priced privatization of Henlius face opposition from investors who demand clarity on relisting plan to protect their interests.Deal...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Fosun Pharma's plan to privatize Henlius faces uncertainty due to cash-flow pressure.Shareholders' interests may suffer since Offer Price may not...

Fosun's low-priced privatization of Henlius face opposition from investors who demand clarity on relisting plan to protect their interests.Deal...