Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>, a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1217/2025121701246.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Doc is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
<li>Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. 

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".
Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. 


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

<ul>
<li>Brookfield and GIC took a peek behind the curtains and firmed terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>. Clean deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> will get done at some price, though not necessarily at ¥1,710/share. You'd want to own Raksul at ¥1,710/share.</li>
<li>Further inquiries suggest CDH likely controls ~18% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>. This should not be up for debate. </li>
</ul>


Brookfield and GIC took a peek behind the curtains and firmed terms for National Storage REIT (NSR AU). Clean deal.

Raksul Inc (4384 JP) will get done at some price, though not necessarily at ¥1,710/share. You'd want to own Raksul at ¥1,710/share.
Further inquiries suggest CDH likely controls ~18% of ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK). This should not be up for debate. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: National Storage, Raksul, ANE Cayman, Strategy, Broadmedia, Austal

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Raksul Inc (4384 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on Toyota Industries (6201 JP),Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Predictive Discovery, Jinke Smart Services, Meilan Airport

<ul>
<li>The feedback I get on this transaction canvasses comments such as: "it just doesn't feel right", or "there's something funny going on", or simply "weird". </li>
<li>With~20% of the shareholder register, involving opaque pre-IPO investors, none of whom have provided IUs, a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>-like situation unfolding is bandied around. The comparison is, however, tenuous.</li>
<li>Further inquiries suggest CDH is likely in control of 18% of that 20%. This needs to be clarified.</li>
</ul>


The feedback I get on this transaction canvasses comments such as: "it just doesn't feel right", or "there's something funny going on", or simply "weird". 
With~20% of the shareholder register, involving opaque pre-IPO investors, none of whom have provided IUs, a Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)-like situation unfolding is bandied around. The comparison is, however, tenuous.
Further inquiries suggest CDH is likely in control of 18% of that 20%. This needs to be clarified.


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): CDH Holds All The Cards

China

Shanghai Henlius Biotech is a global, innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering high-quality, affordable biologic therapies for oncology, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmic diseases. The company is engaged in biopharmaceutical research and development, manufacturing, and commercialization, offering products such as the biosimilars HANLIKANG (rituximab), HANQUYOU (trastuzumab), HANDAYUAN (adalimumab), and HANBEITAI (bevacizumab), as well as the innovative biologic HANSIZHUANG (serplulimab). Headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company was founded in 2010.

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Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

For the month of Dec, 5 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$3bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Surprising absence of CDH in this latest Doc. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns/controls what, I'm inclined to sit this one out - for now....

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: National Storage, Raksul, ANE Cayman, Strategy, Broadmedia, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Predictive Discovery, Jinke Smart Services, Meilan Airport

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): CDH Holds All The Cards

It's a binary call on CDH. Trading wide at a 5% gross spread. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns what, I'm inclined to sit this one out -...

David Blennerhassett

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