Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Guotai Junan Securities   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the December rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 2.9% and the round-trip trade is around US$1.6bn.
There is a fair amount of balance between sectors with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care expected to lose index spots to Industrials, Information Technology and Materials.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June-September but have given up gains since then. Position in stocks that will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.


CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chicmax’s 2022 performance was ugly, which was mainly due to the weak sales growth in online channels. Without obvious improvement in sales channels, Chicmax would easily reach a growth bottleneck.</li>
<li>If Chicmax cannot transform from a marketing-driven low-end brand to a brand with growth potential that adheres to long-term principles,emphasizes equally on R&amp;D and marketing, it would lose investment value.</li>
<li>Chicmax is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than that of Bloomage and Botanee. If things go badly in the future, its valuation could be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jahwa-united-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4266:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jahwa</a>.</li>
</ul>


Chicmax’s 2022 performance was ugly, which was mainly due to the weak sales growth in online channels. Without obvious improvement in sales channels, Chicmax would easily reach a growth bottleneck.
If Chicmax cannot transform from a marketing-driven low-end brand to a brand with growth potential that adheres to long-term principles,emphasizes equally on R&amp;D and marketing, it would lose investment value.
Chicmax is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than that of Bloomage and Botanee. If things go badly in the future, its valuation could be lower than Shanghai Jahwa.


Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic (2145.HK) - Start to Enter a Vicious Cycle

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. </li>
<li>Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso</li>
</ul>


Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. 
Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;
Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso


[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to the PHIP, Chicmax’s performance growth showed a downward trend. Due to consumption downgrade and weak economic situation, the Company's short-term performance could continue to be under pressure.</li>
<li>If the top three brands fail to performance well, Chicmax has no other blockbuster brands to make up for it afterwards. We have concerns on Chicmax’s competitiveness in the industry.</li>
<li>If the total retail sales of consumer goods don’t maintain well, the probability of endogenous growth problems is high, which would finally be reflected in the decline of share price.</li>
</ul>


According to the PHIP, Chicmax’s performance growth showed a downward trend. Due to consumption downgrade and weak economic situation, the Company's short-term performance could continue to be under pressure.
If the top three brands fail to performance well, Chicmax has no other blockbuster brands to make up for it afterwards. We have concerns on Chicmax’s competitiveness in the industry.
If the total retail sales of consumer goods don’t maintain well, the probability of endogenous growth problems is high, which would finally be reflected in the decline of share price.


Pre-IPO Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic - PHIP Updates: Declining Performance and Challenging Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)</a> has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81963" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82037" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case</a> and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/giant-biogene-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:82648" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look</a>.</li>
<li>The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. </li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) has launched its HKEx listing atHK$24.30-27.70 per share to raise up to US$80 million, materially below previous expectations of a US$500 million raise.
We previously discussed the IPO in Giant Biogene IPO: The Bull Case, Giant Biogene IPO: The Bear Case andGiant Biogene IPO: Valuation First Look.
The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. 


China

Shanghai Jahwa United Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and wholesales skin care and hair care products, cosmetics, perfumes, detergents, and other household chemical products.  The Company also provides technical and food services.

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Shanghai Jahwa United Co A (600315 CH)

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Changes to Lead to US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 23 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the Dec rebal. Estimated turnover is 2.9% and round-trip trade is US$1.6bn. Adds outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic (2145.HK) - Start to Enter a Vicious Cycle

After Chicmax released the ugly 2022 results, it seems to have enter a vicious cycle. If Chicmax cannot transform into a visionary R&D driven...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Chinese underconsumption is only half true. It only occurs in categories associated with development stages; Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre-IPO Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic - PHIP Updates: Declining Performance and Challenging Outlook

Chicmax’s performance showed a downward trend in 22H1 and could continue to be under pressure due to consumption downgrade. We've concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Giant Biogene IPO: Valuation Insights

The China A Share peers have derated due to the sharp sell-off in the last few days. Nevertheless, Biogene is attractively valued at the IPO price...

Arun George

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