HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.</li>
<li>Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.</li>
<li>At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. </li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.
Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.
At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. 
Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) and Antengene (6996 HK)Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Beijing Strong Biotechnolo-A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.</li>
<li>The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.</li>
</ul>


We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.


CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

United Nova Technology   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-nova-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40389:1" rel="noopener">United Nova Technology (688469 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biwin-storage-technology-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40391:1" rel="noopener">Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH)</a> were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-nova-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40389:1" rel="noopener">United Nova Technology (688469 CH)</a> had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.

United Nova Technology (688469 CH) and Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH) were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.

United Nova Technology (688469 CH) had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.</li>
<li>There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.
There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.
With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

Shinva Medical Instrument A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?</li>
</ul>


The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.
At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

China

Shanghai Medicilon Inc. develops pharmaceutical products. The Company produces acquired immune deficiency syndrome drugs, anticancer drug sensitizers, genetic engineering vaccines, biomedical intermediates, and other products. Shanghai Medicilon also provides biological analysis, drug safety evaluation, and other services.

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Shanghai Medicilon (688202 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

The insight mainly analyzed the final two domestic policy risks (the national medical insurance negotiation & the VBP on insulin) by the end of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the STAR50 index and 9 for the STAR100. Some stocks will have same way flows from other index trackers. United Nova Tech is...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

The insight mainly analyzed the final two domestic policy risks (the national medical insurance negotiation & the VBP on insulin) by the end of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

We expect the the CSI Medical Services ADDs to outperform the Medical Services DELs over the next few days. The Inclusion/Exclusion events could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the STAR50 index and 9 for the STAR100. Some stocks will have same way flows from other index trackers. United Nova Tech is...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas