Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Shanghai Fudan Microelectronic / Index Rebalance

Shanghai Fudan Microelectronic (688385 CH)

<ul>
<li>The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.95% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,413m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.</li>
<li>The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over multiple time periods. There will be pre-positions on the stocks and those could be unwound over the next week or two.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in March.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.95% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,413m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.
The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over multiple time periods. There will be pre-positions on the stocks and those could be unwound over the next week or two.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes as Adds Bigly Outperform Deletes

Qingdao Haier Biomedical  Lt / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ends today. We forecast 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history. The impact on the potential deletes is a lot higher than the impact on the potential adds.</li>
<li>With 5 changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 5.1% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4,549m. There is a reasonably large reverse funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ends today. We forecast 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history. The impact on the potential deletes is a lot higher than the impact on the potential adds.
With 5 changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 5.1% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4,549m. There is a reasonably large reverse funding trade.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes Forecast as Review Period Ends

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The peripheral vascular interventional device market in China is mainly dominated by foreign companies, but leading domestic company such as Acotec is the one to break the current market pattern.</li>
<li>With more products getting CE/FDA approval in the future, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a> is able to enter more overseas markets. Acotec’s globalization process will diversify the revenue stream. </li>
<li>Acotec has turned loss into profit by relying on product revenue. The Company has entered a new stage of innovation and harvest. We think Acotec has solid long term logic. </li>
</ul>


The peripheral vascular interventional device market in China is mainly dominated by foreign companies, but leading domestic company such as Acotec is the one to break the current market pattern.
With more products getting CE/FDA approval in the future, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is able to enter more overseas markets. Acotec’s globalization process will diversify the revenue stream. 
Acotec has turned loss into profit by relying on product revenue. The Company has entered a new stage of innovation and harvest. We think Acotec has solid long term logic. 


Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) - A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic

<ul>
<li>Nearly 85% of the way through the review period, we see 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>Given the significantly higher market cap of the inclusions using a 6-month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee will continue to use the shorter listing history requirement.</li>
<li>With 5 changes a side, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.15% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,994m. Impact on some deletions is quite high.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 85% of the way through the review period, we see 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.
Given the significantly higher market cap of the inclusions using a 6-month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee will continue to use the shorter listing history requirement.
With 5 changes a side, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.15% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,994m. Impact on some deletions is quite high.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Another Five Potential Changes in March

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Index Rebalance

Shanghai United Imaging Health (688271 CH)

<ul>
<li>The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be some pre-positioning over the last week as the deletes have sold off hard.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.34% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,766m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December.
All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be some pre-positioning over the last week as the deletes have sold off hard.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.34% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,766m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week

China

Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech (Gruop) Co., Ltd. develops and sells medical instruments. The Company manufactures and sells peripheral vascular stents, aortic balloon dilation catheters, aortic stent grafts, and other related products. Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech (Gruop) markets its products primarily throughout China with limited overseas.

Shanghai MicroPort Endovascula (688016 CH)

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Shanghai MicroPort Endovascula (688016 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes as Adds Bigly Outperform Deletes

There are 5 changes in March as the index committee stick to a 6-month minimum listing history. The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes Forecast as Review Period Ends

There could be 5 index changes in March if the index committee continues using a 6-month minimum listing history. One-way turnover will be over 5%....

Brian Freitas

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) - A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic

Acotec is able to break the monopoly position of foreign products in China and has entered the harvest season. As the first China company...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Another Five Potential Changes in March

There could be 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history. One-way turnover will be 5%+ resulting in a one-way trade of CNY4bn. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week

There are 5 changes for the STAR50 in Dec. The changes were forecast; the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last week. Historically, a long...

Brian Freitas

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