HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New policy about surgical robots was released, which is conducive to the promotion and popularization of surgical robots in China. However, the situation is not as simple as it seems.</li>
<li>We deep dive the business environment of surgical robots in China.Even with favorable policies, both surgical robot systems and consumables have to reduce price largely so as to be affordable.</li>
<li>It’s difficult to make profits in China. Medbot could lose money for quite some time.Without solid internationalization, the rally cannot be sustained for a long time only by policy catalyst.</li>
</ul>


New policy about surgical robots was released, which is conducive to the promotion and popularization of surgical robots in China. However, the situation is not as simple as it seems.
We deep dive the business environment of surgical robots in China.Even with favorable policies, both surgical robot systems and consumables have to reduce price largely so as to be affordable.
It’s difficult to make profits in China. Medbot could lose money for quite some time.Without solid internationalization, the rally cannot be sustained for a long time only by policy catalyst.


Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252.HK) - Recognize the Reality but Don’t Give up Hope

<ul>
<li>To achieve massive sales expansion, surgical robots and consumables have to reduce price largely to enter NRDL reimbursement. This is at odds with expectations that they will generate high profits.</li>
<li>The actual market share gained and revenue generated by Medbot may fall far short of expectations, resulting in an inability to cover years of rapid growth in R&amp;D/selling/administrative expenses.</li>
<li>Due to uncertainties on commercialization and profitability outlook, Medbot lacks an “anchor” for valuation.The large fluctuation in share price would continue. Surgical robots are not a good business for now.</li>
</ul>


To achieve massive sales expansion, surgical robots and consumables have to reduce price largely to enter NRDL reimbursement. This is at odds with expectations that they will generate high profits.
The actual market share gained and revenue generated by Medbot may fall far short of expectations, resulting in an inability to cover years of rapid growth in R&amp;D/selling/administrative expenses.
Due to uncertainties on commercialization and profitability outlook, Medbot lacks an “anchor” for valuation.The large fluctuation in share price would continue. Surgical robots are not a good business for now.


MicroPort MedBot (2252.HK)- Lack an “anchor” for Valuation Due to Uncertainties in Commercialization

<ul>
<li>Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a>’s 2021 performance missed expectations. </li>
<li>Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.</li>
<li>Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.</li>
</ul>


Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, Microport Scientific (853 HK)’s 2021 performance missed expectations. 
Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.
Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.


Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this latest installment in a series dating back to March 2018, I've analysed 5,500 moves over three years inside CCASS, targeting &gt;5% of shares outstanding of individual stocks. </li>
<li>The data continues to bear out the overall underperformance of stocks that exhibit such moves.</li>
<li>Additionally, the movement of large blocks of shares may illustrate that the beneficial owner of those shares has pledged them as collateral for a loan.</li>
</ul>


In this latest installment in a series dating back to March 2018, I've analysed 5,500 moves over three years inside CCASS, targeting &gt;5% of shares outstanding of individual stocks. 
The data continues to bear out the overall underperformance of stocks that exhibit such moves.
Additionally, the movement of large blocks of shares may illustrate that the beneficial owner of those shares has pledged them as collateral for a loan.


CCASS: Why Large Moves Continue To Matter

<ul>
<li>MicroPort’s net loss widened according to its profit warning. The negative impact of centralized procurement is already being shown. We analyzed the situation of its different business segments.</li>
<li>After continuous M&amp;A, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a> could face cash flow pressure in this unfriendly financing environment.</li>
<li>Due to MicroPort’s development mode, the market value of its subsidiaries could be higher than the parent company. Our view is that the subsidiaries would be a better investment.</li>
</ul>


MicroPort’s net loss widened according to its profit warning. The negative impact of centralized procurement is already being shown. We analyzed the situation of its different business segments.
After continuous M&amp;A, Microport Scientific (853 HK) could face cash flow pressure in this unfriendly financing environment.
Due to MicroPort’s development mode, the market value of its subsidiaries could be higher than the parent company. Our view is that the subsidiaries would be a better investment.


Microport Scientific (853.HK) - The Subsidiaries Would Be a Better Investment

China

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot is a surgical robot company that designs, develops, manufactures, and commercializes surgical robots and associated digital surgical solutions. Its product portfolio covers surgical specialties including endoscopy, orthopedics, vascular intervention, natural orifice surgery, and percutaneous puncture, with key products like the Toumai laparoscopic surgical robot, DFVision 3D electronic laparoscope, and SkyWalker orthopedic surgical robot. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was officially established in 2015.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK)

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252.HK) - Recognize the Reality but Don’t Give up Hope

Even with favorable policy, surgical robots still have to reduce price largely so as to be affordable in China. Without solid internationalization,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MicroPort MedBot (2252.HK)- Lack an “anchor” for Valuation Due to Uncertainties in Commercialization

Medbot lacks an “anchor” for valuation due to uncertainties on commercialization/profitability outlook. Surgical robots are not a good business for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Microport’s 2021 performance missed expectations due to VBP and pandemic. Its “unique” development mode will lead to lower-than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CCASS: Why Large Moves Continue To Matter

I've analysed 5,500 moves over three years inside CCASS, targeting >5% of shares outstanding. The data continues to bear out the overall...

David Blennerhassett

Microport Scientific (853.HK) - The Subsidiaries Would Be a Better Investment

We analyzed the centralized procurement and other concerns on MicroPort. Due to its development mode, the subsidiaries are more attractive and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)