House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

<ul><li>The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.</li><li>BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.</li><li>Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.</li></ul>

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.

Yankuang Energy Group   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.</li>
<li>Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.
Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Covid-19 / Cover Story: China’s Covid response calibration. </li><li>Markets / In Depth: Chinese stocks’ wild ride. </li><li>China-U.S. / Xi Jinping calls for China and U.S. to share responsibilities for world peace. </li></ul>

Covid-19 / Cover Story: China’s Covid response calibration. Markets / In Depth: Chinese stocks’ wild ride. China-U.S. / Xi Jinping calls for China and U.S. to share responsibilities for world peace. 

CX Daily: China’s Covid Response Calibration

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

Earnings: are positive surprises over?

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the...

Market Radar

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

We estimate 30 changes at the June rebalance with a one-way turnover of 4.48% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: China’s Covid Response Calibration

Covid-19/Cover Story: China’s Covid response calibration. Markets/In Depth: Chinese stocks’ wild ride. China-U.S./Xi Jinping calls for China and...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)