Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET's EPS estimate may be revised up, based on our 12M forward EPS assessed through a top-down analysis, which continued to rise to Bt120.5/share, 26% higher than the Bt95.9/share estimated by the consensus.</li><li>This reflects that the Thai stock market may have bottomed out and is thus likely to accelerate going forward.</li><li>We recommend buying.</li></ul>

The SET's EPS estimate may be revised up, based on our 12M forward EPS assessed through a top-down analysis, which continued to rise to Bt120.5/share, 26% higher than the Bt95.9/share estimated by the consensus.This reflects that the Thai stock market may have bottomed out and is thus likely to accelerate going forward.We recommend buying.

SET Has Highest Risk-Reward Relative to Global Equity Markets

<ul><li>Thailand's core inflation, which provides a more nuanced reflection of economic conditions than headline inflation, has persisted below the target range of 1-3% for the past 10 months.</li><li>Consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth would signal a technical economic recession, placing pressure on the MPC to consider reducing the policy interest rate preemptively before the Fed acts, with the aim of stimulating economic activity.</li><li>This presents a short-term negative factor that could lead to foreign fund outflows from the Thai market.</li></ul>

Thailand's core inflation, which provides a more nuanced reflection of economic conditions than headline inflation, has persisted below the target range of 1-3% for the past 10 months.Consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth would signal a technical economic recession, placing pressure on the MPC to consider reducing the policy interest rate preemptively before the Fed acts, with the aim of stimulating economic activity.This presents a short-term negative factor that could lead to foreign fund outflows from the Thai market.

Technical Recession Risks Already Priced In

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,394/1,390 points (50-day and 10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,404/1,416 points.</li><li>Our recommendation has been to buy at an MRP of 4.64%, surpassing the 90-day average (4.15%) by more than 2 S.D., aiming to mitigate risks linked to the slowdown in the Thai economy and potential foreign fund outflows.</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive news stories: SAWAD, TIDLOR and PTT.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,394/1,390 points (50-day and 10-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,404/1,416 points.Our recommendation has been to buy at an MRP of 4.64%, surpassing the 90-day average (4.15%) by more than 2 S.D., aiming to mitigate risks linked to the slowdown in the Thai economy and potential foreign fund outflows.We recommend stocks with positive news stories: SAWAD, TIDLOR and PTT.

Keep a Close Watch on Earnings Results and US Economic Figures

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue</li><li>Support measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take time</li><li>Structural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continueSupport measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take timeStructural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

SET Has Highest Risk-Reward Relative to Global Equity Markets

The SET's EPS estimate may be revised up, based on our 12M forward EPS assessed through a top-down analysis, which continued to rise to...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Recession Risks Already Priced In

Thailand's core inflation, which provides a more nuanced reflection of economic conditions than headline inflation, has persisted below the target...

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on Earnings Results and US Economic Figures

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,394/1,390 points (50-day and 10-day EMA) and the resistance at...

Krungthai XSpring

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue Support measures should help a broader...

ABN AMRO

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)