Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.</li>
<li>Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.</li>
<li>Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.


Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.
</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> </li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener"> Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.


OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , BYD (1211 HK) , S&amp;P/ASX 200 , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) 

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Nasdaq-100 , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)



Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 - August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">ASX 200 INDEX</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 - August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet, S&amp;P 500 INDEX , Tesla , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , ASX 200 INDEX , CSI 300 Index , HSI INDEX.

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP).


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

<ul>
<li>Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.</li>
<li>Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.</li>
<li>Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.


Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener"> KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.

OVERSOLD: Meta (META US) , HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) 

OVERBOUGHT: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ,  KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

China

The CSI 300 Index is a free-float weighted index that consists of 300 A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Index has a base level of 1000 on 12/31/2004. * Due to our agreement with CSI, shares in the index is restricted, please visit SSIS<go> for more information and access. This ticker holds prices fed from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5

Tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for the week of September 1 - September 5, overbought / oversold levels highlighted...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

WEEKLY analysis of tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for August 25-29. Several overbought conditions in US and Asia...

Nico Rosti

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: September 1 – September 5

Tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for the week of September 1 - September 5, overbought / oversold levels highlighted...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

WEEKLY analysis of tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for August 25-29. Several overbought conditions in US and Asia...

Nico Rosti

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

​August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...

John Ley

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

August brings a shift in seasonal patterns, with weaker returns and greater downside risk, making a case for selective hedging with markets near...