Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Heavyweights attended as per previous conferences. Finance Minister (FM) Lan Foan and his three deputies</li>
<li>Economists’ and market expectations damped down to RMB 1.5 – 2 Trillion in stimulus.</li>
<li>Some major positive points we believe, but will be a disappointment to some</li>
</ul>


Heavyweights attended as per previous conferences. Finance Minister (FM) Lan Foan and his three deputies
Economists’ and market expectations damped down to RMB 1.5 – 2 Trillion in stimulus.
Some major positive points we believe, but will be a disappointment to some


Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans</li>
<li>New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans
New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets


Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

<ul>
<li>The fabled  PBoC Put is finally out in the open</li>
<li>Is there a floor under the stock market, if not the property market?</li>
<li>Has the asymetric opportunity now gone with this recent rally?</li>
</ul>


The fabled  PBoC Put is finally out in the open
Is there a floor under the stock market, if not the property market?
Has the asymetric opportunity now gone with this recent rally?


After the Rally. What Next for the Hong Kong Market?

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.</li>
<li>The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.
The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance


China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take

Some major strategic changes have come out of the Ministry of Finance press conference but the lack of a concrete number for boosing consumption...

Rikki Malik

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

After the Rally. What Next for the Hong Kong Market?

The emergence of the PBoC Put and what to do now that the Hang Seng Index has rallied so fast and hard. Has the boat been missed?

Rikki Malik

Overview #8 Plus Ca Change...

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Japan the Japanese Yen, China as well as Uranium

Rikki Malik