Podcast hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Real Conversations

Real Conversations

Podcast hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

Hedgeye is an investment research and financial media company founded in 2008. Our core principles are transparency, accountability and trust. Hedgeye’s Real Conversations series, hosted by CEO Keith McCullough, brings together the brightest minds in the business to cut through the noise and discuss the financial market moves that actually matter.LEGALThe opinions expressed in Hedgeye Real Conversations are those of the individual speaking and not of Hedgeye, and should not be construed as specific investment advice. Hedgeye® is a registered trademark. All Hedegye Real Conversations are the intellectual property of Hedgeye. All rights reserved.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Bullish trend in China and interest rates, with signaling processes indicating potential upward movement</li><li>Focus on risk management and waiting for corrections before buying or selling</li><li>Emphasis on long cyclicality and avoiding rate-sensitive sectors likely to be negatively impacted by rising interest rates</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Bullish trend in China and interest rates, with signaling processes indicating potential upward movementFocus on risk management and waiting for corrections before buying or sellingEmphasis on long cyclicality and avoiding rate-sensitive sectors likely to be negatively impacted by rising interest ratesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy showing great signs at the moment, and China is also potentially looking to beat the fairly bearish expectations (and why barely anyone has been net long cyclicals in all asset spaces).</li><li>This leaves markets with a great divergence, as Europe is yet to show the same signs of momentum, and inflation expectations (between USD and EUR) are also starting to diverge, but positioning has not followed accordingly.</li><li>Let’s rerun our current trades to kick things off: Equities: Long Materials and Long Korea (as a China proxy).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy showing great signs at the moment, and China is also potentially looking to beat the fairly bearish expectations (and why barely anyone has been net long cyclicals in all asset spaces).This leaves markets with a great divergence, as Europe is yet to show the same signs of momentum, and inflation expectations (between USD and EUR) are also starting to diverge, but positioning has not followed accordingly.Let’s rerun our current trades to kick things off: Equities: Long Materials and Long Korea (as a China proxy).

Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets</li>
<li>Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market</li>
<li>Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe</li>
</ul>


More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets
Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market
Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe


CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

<ul><li>I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.</li><li>In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.</li><li>Is it really that important?</li></ul>

I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.Is it really that important?

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

The Macro Show | February 27, 2024

The morning started early with a call at 4:30 AM, discussing China's bullish trend, potential interest rate hikes, and sector impacts, leading to...

Real Conversations

Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy...

Steno Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research

The Macro Show | February 27, 2024

The morning started early with a call at 4:30 AM, discussing China's bullish trend, potential interest rate hikes, and sector impacts, leading to...

Real Conversations

Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy...

Steno Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

​China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...