Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

<ul><li>Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.</li><li>Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.</li><li>Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.</li></ul>

Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

<ul><li>Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.</li><li>If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.</li><li>We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.</li></ul>

Conclusions upfront: The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China.If Chinese consumers remain conservative, the efforts could be undermined.We won’t be surprised to see more policy easing in 2024.

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>The popular ‘End of China’ narrative is wide-of-the mark. China has suffered a self-induced (Western-style) demand slowdown to protect the Yuan</li>
<li>2023 seems to have brought in a new policy regime that emphasizes domestic GDP growth over a rigid exchange rate</li>
<li>Watching liquidity is crucial. Latest evidence shows the People’s Bank injecting substantial funds back into domestic money market. Expect a coming cyclical pick-up</li>
</ul>


The popular ‘End of China’ narrative is wide-of-the mark. China has suffered a self-induced (Western-style) demand slowdown to protect the Yuan
2023 seems to have brought in a new policy regime that emphasizes domestic GDP growth over a rigid exchange rate
Watching liquidity is crucial. Latest evidence shows the People’s Bank injecting substantial funds back into domestic money market. Expect a coming cyclical pick-up


‘The End of China’ Narrative Is Completely Wrong: Think Liquidity, Think Cycle

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains...

Steno Research

EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun

The Chinese stimulus package is too small and the composition underlines the domestic issues in China. If Chinese consumers remain conservative,...

Steno Research

‘The End of China’ Narrative Is Completely Wrong: Think Liquidity, Think Cycle

The hip ‘End of China’ story is wrong. China has suffered a self-induced (Western-style) demand slowdown to protect the Yuan, but 2023 has brought...

Michael J. Howell