Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

<ul>
<li>China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.</li>
<li>We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.</li>
<li>Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.</li>
</ul>


China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.
Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.


China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 
</li>
<li>Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China</li>
<li>Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022
</li>
</ul>


Investors are overly pessimistic, but China may already be a contrarian ‘buy’ 

Latest economic data show positive surprises. GDP momentum is rising but investor positioning data evidence another big cut in exposure to China
Monetary policy stable and supportive. No sign of credit bust, or boom. Great potential for policy ‘pivot’ later in 2022



<ul>
<li>Chinese net capital outflows are again picking up to a US$600 billion annual clip. Chinese Yuan has also been under-pressure from the strong US dollar</li>
<li>People’s Bank (PBoC) forced to tighten domestic monetary conditions to help Yuan, despite COVID-19 lockdowns</li>
<li>Tighter Chinese Liquidity hurts World economy, reinforcing recession threat and hurting commodity markets</li>
</ul>


Chinese net capital outflows are again picking up to a US$600 billion annual clip. Chinese Yuan has also been under-pressure from the strong US dollar
People’s Bank (PBoC) forced to tighten domestic monetary conditions to help Yuan, despite COVID-19 lockdowns
Tighter Chinese Liquidity hurts World economy, reinforcing recession threat and hurting commodity markets


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>In Depth: Chinese firms bending over backward to offer foldable phones</li><li>Shanghai says no plan to seal off entire city of 25 million</li><li>Chinese stocks get another drubbing as uncertainty overwhelms investors</li></ul>

In Depth: Chinese firms bending over backward to offer foldable phonesShanghai says no plan to seal off entire city of 25 millionChinese stocks get another drubbing as uncertainty overwhelms investors

CX Daily: Chinese Firms Bending Over Backward to Offer Foldable Phones

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

China's LPRs have held steady, but we believe a cut to the mortgage benchmark is imminent. A recovery in home prices may prove elusive. Debt-fueled...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Is It Time To Buy China?

Media pessimism about China has become exaggerated. The economy is not strong but latest data show acceleration, and the monetary backdrop is...

Michael J. Howell

China – Policy Switches-Off

We hear the tireless refrain that China is set to ease her fiscal and monetary policies. True, the COVID-19 lockdowns provide a decent excuse, but...

Michael J. Howell

CX Daily: Chinese Firms Bending Over Backward to Offer Foldable Phones

In Depth: Chinese firms bending over backward to offer foldable phones. Shanghai says no plan to seal off entire city of 25 million

Caixin Global