China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Foreign exchange reserves in China continued to fall in august, though at a slow pace. Reserves decreased to $3.19 trillion in August, a $15.89 billion drop. This decrease is small compared to a year ago, when reserves fell by $93.93 billion from July to August. Reserves have remained largely unchanged in 2016, though figures in August were the lowest since December 2011.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/014/298/original/Figure%201.jpg?1475822687" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="14298"></figure>Looking at Chinese reserves in terms of non-USD currencies helps explain both the downward trend since 2014 and the more…

Foreign exchange reserves in China continued to fall in august, though at a slow pace. Reserves decreased to $3.19 trillion in August, a $15.89 billion drop. This decrease is small compared to a year ago, when reserves fell by $93.93 billion from July to August. Reserves have remained largely unchanged in 2016, though figures in August were the lowest since December 2011.Looking at Chinese reserves in terms of non-USD currencies helps explain both the downward trend since 2014 and the more…

What's Happening with Chinese FX Reserves?

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) <a href="https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1333627&amp;SctArtId=243858&amp;from=CM&amp;nsl_code=LIME&amp;sourceObjectId=8645884&amp;sourceRevId=10&amp;fee_ind=N&amp;exp_date=20240616-20:32:13" target="_blank">outlined their view</a> of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) outlined their view of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

What's Happening with Chinese FX Reserves?

Foreign exchange reserves in China continued to fall in august, though at a slow pace. Reserves decreased to $3.19 trillion in August, a $15.89...

Christopher Balding

RMB FX Flow Report

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI)....

Christopher Balding

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on...

Christopher Balding

China Asset Risk Clear in Margin Data

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of...

Daniel Tabbush

Growing Corporate Debt in China

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that...

Bixmoor