Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.</li>
<li>ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.</li>
<li>On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.</li>
</ul>


Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson's USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.
ESWIN, the week's only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.
On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion's USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.


This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.</li>
<li>The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/knowledge-atlas-technology-joint-stock-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a> and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> are also riskier names in the current market environment. </li>
</ul>


The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.
The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and MiniMax (100 HK) are also riskier names in the current market environment. 


HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on 21 August - final capping will use closing prices from the close on 1 September.</li>
<li>There are 2 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, no constituent changes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, 5 changes for the HSIII, and 1 change for the HSBIO.</li>
<li>There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index and that should lead to 54 additions to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 7 September.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on 21 August - final capping will use closing prices from the close on 1 September.
There are 2 adds for the HSI, no constituent changes HSCEI, 1 change for the HSTECH, 5 changes for the HSIII, and 1 change for the HSBIO.
There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index and that should lead to 54 additions to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 7 September.


Hang Seng Indexes: US$3.2bn of Flows Post Capping + Stock Connect Changes (Sep 2026)

<ul>
<li>There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 580.</li>
<li>Of the 61 HSCI inclusions, 6 are already a part of StockConnect. 54 stocks will be added from the open 7 September. All 15 deletion will be removed from StockConnect.</li>
<li>Stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have massively outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect over the last 3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 580.
Of the 61 HSCI inclusions, 6 are already a part of StockConnect. 54 stocks will be added from the open 7 September. All 15 deletion will be removed from StockConnect.
Stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have massively outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect over the last 3 weeks.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 61 Adds, 15 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

<ul>
<li>The September 2026 HSCI review adds 53 names to southbound Connect, 49 new and 4 returning, and removes 15, all effective 7 Sep 2026.</li>
<li>The announced list ran wider than our forecast. 33 of our 36 ADD calls and 14 of 25 DELETE calls were announced.</li>
<li>Current ADDs rose into the announcement and DELETEs fell. Historically, ADD-NEWs outperformed ADD-REJOINs over the bridge, while DELETEs fell further after announcement.</li>
</ul>


The September 2026 HSCI review adds 53 names to southbound Connect, 49 new and 4 returning, and removes 15, all effective 7 Sep 2026.
The announced list ran wider than our forecast. 33 of our 36 ADD calls and 14 of 25 DELETE calls were announced.
Current ADDs rose into the announcement and DELETEs fell. Historically, ADD-NEWs outperformed ADD-REJOINs over the bridge, while DELETEs fell further after announcement.


HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Rebalance: Post-Announcement Positioning

China

SUNMI is a global Internet of Things (IoT) company that specializes in intelligent commercial hardware and integrated software solutions for businesses. They offer a range of Android-based IoT devices, including point-of-sale (POS) terminals, payment terminals, mobile terminals, desktop terminals, and kiosks, along with their proprietary SUNMI OS and cloud services. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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SUNMI (6810 HK)

This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

This week in APAC ECM: Firmus pulled its ASX IPO of up to USD 5.5bn, Moonshot reportedly targeted up to USD 5bn in Hong Kong, and Jio reportedly...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Indexes: US$3.2bn of Flows Post Capping + Stock Connect Changes (Sep 2026)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII indices will use 1 Sep closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four indices...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 61 Adds, 15 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the HSCI in September. For Stock Connect, we expect 54 adds and 15 deletes. The forecast Connect adds have...

Brian Freitas

HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Rebalance: Post-Announcement Positioning

HSIL announced the September review result on 21 Aug 2026 after market close. We forecast 53 southbound Connect ADDs and 15 DELETEs. We review the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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Market Cap (USDm)

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This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band

This week in APAC ECM: Firmus pulled its ASX IPO of up to USD 5.5bn, Moonshot reportedly targeted up to USD 5bn in Hong Kong, and Jio reportedly...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

​The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Indexes: US$3.2bn of Flows Post Capping + Stock Connect Changes (Sep 2026)

The Sep rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII indices will use 1 Sep closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four indices...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 61 Adds, 15 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 61 adds and 15 deletes for the HSCI in September. For Stock Connect, we expect 54 adds and 15 deletes. The forecast Connect adds have...

Brian Freitas

HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Rebalance: Post-Announcement Positioning

HSIL announced the September review result on 21 Aug 2026 after market close. We forecast 53 southbound Connect ADDs and 15 DELETEs. We review the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...