Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) is a leading upper midscale hotel chain group in China is getting ready for an IPO in the US.</li>
<li>We believe that a valuation range of RMB12.8 billion ($1.8 billion) to RMB16.9 billion ($2.3 billion) is appropriate for Atour Lifestyle Holdings. </li>
<li>Unless the IPO is priced sufficiently lower than the intrinsic value of the company, many institutional investors will likely pass on the IPO given the Bearish market sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) is a leading upper midscale hotel chain group in China is getting ready for an IPO in the US.
We believe that a valuation range of RMB12.8 billion ($1.8 billion) to RMB16.9 billion ($2.3 billion) is appropriate for Atour Lifestyle Holdings. 
Unless the IPO is priced sufficiently lower than the intrinsic value of the company, many institutional investors will likely pass on the IPO given the Bearish market sentiment.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> expects a sharp 87.5-92.5% reduction in its losses in 1H22, driven primarily by significant revival in its Club Med business, though China is weak.</li>
<li>Outlook for 2H22 looks very encouraging as booking figures indicate good YoY volume growth and double-digit rate improvement in EMEA and Americas. </li>
<li>China also witnessed solid rebound in Jul and Aug after removal of lockdowns in 2Q22. New Club Med Joyview resorts including Changbaishan and Qiandaohu are added contributors. </li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) expects a sharp 87.5-92.5% reduction in its losses in 1H22, driven primarily by significant revival in its Club Med business, though China is weak.
Outlook for 2H22 looks very encouraging as booking figures indicate good YoY volume growth and double-digit rate improvement in EMEA and Americas. 
China also witnessed solid rebound in Jul and Aug after removal of lockdowns in 2Q22. New Club Med Joyview resorts including Changbaishan and Qiandaohu are added contributors. 


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.</li>
<li>Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.
Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jin-jiang-capital-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15781:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)</a>'s H Shareholders’ class meeting is scheduled for 26 April. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The 10% blocking stake is 2.50% of outstanding shares (10.00% of H Shares). The two H Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>At last close and for a 17 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the total offer is 1.6% and 15.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)'s H Shareholders’ class meeting is scheduled for 26 April. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
The 10% blocking stake is 2.50% of outstanding shares (10.00% of H Shares). The two H Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. There is no minimum acceptance condition.
At last close and for a 17 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the total offer is 1.6% and 15.7%, respectively.


Jin Jiang Capital’s H Share Class Meeting on 26 April, IFA Opinion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-jin-jiang-capital-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15781:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)</a>’s privatisation offer from Jin Jiang International Holding is HK$3.10 per H share. The pre-condition was fulfilled on 28 March.  </li>
<li>The key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% of independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>At last close and for a May end effective date (composite document despatched on 1 April), the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 4.7% and 32.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)’s privatisation offer from Jin Jiang International Holding is HK$3.10 per H share. The pre-condition was fulfilled on 28 March.  
The key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% of independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
At last close and for a May end effective date (composite document despatched on 1 April), the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 4.7% and 32.1%, respectively.


Jin Jiang Capital’s Offer Risk/Reward – Pre-Condition Satisfied

Hong Kong

Shangri-La Asia Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the ownership, development, operation, and management of hotels and associated properties, as well as investment properties and residential developments for sale. The company operates hotels under various brands including Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts, Kerry Hotels, JEN by Shangri-La, and Traders. Headquartered in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong, the group was founded in 1971.

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Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)

Atour Lifestyle Holdings IPO Analysis

Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) is a leading upper midscale hotel chain group in China is getting ready for an IPO in the US. We provide an in...

Douglas Kim

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances

Not only that Fosun Tourism has an improving 1H22 performance, its outlook for 2H22 is also promising as evidenced by solid forward booking, better...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas

Jin Jiang Capital’s Offer Risk/Reward – Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition was fulfilled on 28 March and the composite document will be despatched on 1 April. At last close and for a May end effective...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Atour Lifestyle Holdings IPO Analysis

Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) is a leading upper midscale hotel chain group in China is getting ready for an IPO in the US. We provide an in...

Douglas Kim

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances

Not only that Fosun Tourism has an improving 1H22 performance, its outlook for 2H22 is also promising as evidenced by solid forward booking, better...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas

Jin Jiang Capital’s H Share Class Meeting on 26 April, IFA Opinion

Jin Jiang's H Share’s class meeting is scheduled for 26 April. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. For a 17 May payment, the...

Arun George

Jin Jiang Capital’s Offer Risk/Reward – Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition was fulfilled on 28 March and the composite document will be despatched on 1 April. At last close and for a May end effective...

Arun George