Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. </li>
<li>Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.</li>
<li>An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Data from Trip.com Group (9961 HK) showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. 
Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.
An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Air China (H) (753 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK).  


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a> has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.</li>
<li>Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.</li>
<li>55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade. </li>
</ul>



H World Group (1179 HK) has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.
Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.
55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade. 


H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

<ul>
<li>China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.</li>
<li>The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International (308 HK)</a> have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.</li>
</ul>


China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.
The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) and China Travel International (308 HK) have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.


China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

Hong Kong

Shangri-La Asia Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates hotels, and provides management and related services.  The Company also leases offices, commercial, residential and exhibition hall space.

Price Gauge
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Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

​H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...