Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has apparently lobbed a higher offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> and AGL has apparently rejected it.</li>
<li>Confirmation from AGL is due tomorrow but given the previous bid was "ridiculously low", "extremely undervalued" the company, and had "unserious" elements, expect the language to be similar.</li>
<li>Next steps probably mean waiting for the De-Merger Circular due April but possibly May. In the meantime, this probably trades in a range.</li>
</ul>


The duo of Brookfield and Atlassian/Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has apparently lobbed a higher offer for AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) and AGL has apparently rejected it.
Confirmation from AGL is due tomorrow but given the previous bid was "ridiculously low", "extremely undervalued" the company, and had "unserious" elements, expect the language to be similar.
Next steps probably mean waiting for the De-Merger Circular due April but possibly May. In the meantime, this probably trades in a range.


Second Brookfield-MCB Bid for AGL Energy Rejected

Head of Content, Data & Research, Helixtap

Arusha Das

Head of Content, Data & Research

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Commodities

<ul><li>Singapore's sanction on Russia which does not include rubber or rubber-related items is likely to have a limited impact on the Asian rubber industry.</li><li>However, the recent extension of sanctions on Belarus has cautioned the sellers as they sought more clarity on the situation and the way forward, sources said Helixtap. The ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine has taken the entire commodity market on a spin while it was on the path of recovery from the aftermath of a pandemic.</li><li>Worsening the situation, some US, UK, and Europe sanctions on Russia which was recently extended on Belarus have made the picture murkier. Following the lead, Singapore recently imposed rare unilateral sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.</li></ul>

Singapore's sanction on Russia which does not include rubber or rubber-related items is likely to have a limited impact on the Asian rubber industry.However, the recent extension of sanctions on Belarus has cautioned the sellers as they sought more clarity on the situation and the way forward, sources said Helixtap. The ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine has taken the entire commodity market on a spin while it was on the path of recovery from the aftermath of a pandemic.Worsening the situation, some US, UK, and Europe sanctions on Russia which was recently extended on Belarus have made the picture murkier. Following the lead, Singapore recently imposed rare unilateral sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

UPDATE: Asian Rubber Sees Limited Impact Of Singapore’s Sanction On Russia

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector</li>
<li>It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. </li>
<li>Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.</li>
</ul>


A record 42% of active Global managers have zero exposure to the Energy sector
It is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation among active Global managers, held by fewer funds than the fringe Utilities and Real Estate sectors. 
Value managers hold the larger allocations, whilst Aggressive Growth managers have all but abandoned the sector.


Global Energy:  Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Second Brookfield-MCB Bid for AGL Energy Rejected

The Brookfield-Grok Ventures bid for AGL was upped this weekend by 10%, and the AFR reports it was rejected. This either needs a big foreigner to...

Travis Lundy

UPDATE: Asian Rubber Sees Limited Impact Of Singapore’s Sanction On Russia

Recent unprecedented Singapore sanction on Russia which does not include rubber or rubber-related items is likely to have a limited impact on the...

Helixtap

Global Energy: Conviction Underweight or Complacency?

Ownership in the Global Energy sectors is at record lows. Despite rising oil prices, it is the largest sector underweight and a minor allocation...

Steven Holden

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