Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After two years of significant investments in AI infrastructure, investors are counting 2025 to be a transformational year for AI.</li><li>As market leaders will continue to deploy a large amount of capital in AI infrastructure buildout to widen their competitive moats, new themes in the downstream are rising, including AI agents, humanoid robots, robotaxi, etc.</li><li>We remain bullish on AI demand. We continue to rank AI theme as our top pick for 2025. Market leaders will continue to enjoy the AI tailwind beyond 2025.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

After two years of significant investments in AI infrastructure, investors are counting 2025 to be a transformational year for AI.As market leaders will continue to deploy a large amount of capital in AI infrastructure buildout to widen their competitive moats, new themes in the downstream are rising, including AI agents, humanoid robots, robotaxi, etc.We remain bullish on AI demand. We continue to rank AI theme as our top pick for 2025. Market leaders will continue to enjoy the AI tailwind beyond 2025.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors -Stargate Poised to Accelerate Global AI Arms Race

<ul><li>Seven out of the 16 leading PCB manufacturers in China have announced profit alerts by mid-July, with an avg. 75% to 105% YoY and 21% to 43% QoQ increase in net profit for 2Q24.</li><li>We think the strong performance is supported by inventory restocking and upgrade cycle driven by the AI boom.</li><li>These positive announcements added momentum for the PCB sector, with an avg. 9% month-to-date increase in share price (for the seven companies with profit alerts announcements).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Seven out of the 16 leading PCB manufacturers in China have announced profit alerts by mid-July, with an avg. 75% to 105% YoY and 21% to 43% QoQ increase in net profit for 2Q24.We think the strong performance is supported by inventory restocking and upgrade cycle driven by the AI boom.These positive announcements added momentum for the PCB sector, with an avg. 9% month-to-date increase in share price (for the seven companies with profit alerts announcements).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - PCB sector: 1H24 earnings preview

<ul><li>Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial decline of 4.1% in 2023.</li><li>In terms of quarterly performance, both 1Q23 and 2Q23 have recorded steep declines of more than 20% YoY, signaling a rather bleak outlook for the global PCB market.</li><li>Moving forward, we expect the global PCB market will persistently encounter macroeconomic challenges due to weakened consumer demand and the ongoing destocking cycle among downstream industries in 2H23. We may see some gradual recovery in 2024.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial decline of 4.1% in 2023.In terms of quarterly performance, both 1Q23 and 2Q23 have recorded steep declines of more than 20% YoY, signaling a rather bleak outlook for the global PCB market.Moving forward, we expect the global PCB market will persistently encounter macroeconomic challenges due to weakened consumer demand and the ongoing destocking cycle among downstream industries in 2H23. We may see some gradual recovery in 2024.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD357,520m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD357,520m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC

China

Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components. The Company's products include copper coated panels, printed circuit boards, and other related products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shengyi Technology (600183 CH)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors -Stargate Poised to Accelerate Global AI Arms Race

We remain bullish on AI demand. We continue to rank AI theme as our top pick for 2025. Market leaders will continue to enjoy the AI tailwind beyond...

CMB International

Semiconductors - PCB sector: 1H24 earnings preview

Seven out of the 16 leading PCB manufacturers in China have announced profit alerts by mid-July, with an avg. 75% to 105% YoY and 21% to 43% QoQ...

CMB International

China PCB Sector- Weak Market in 2023

Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors -Stargate Poised to Accelerate Global AI Arms Race

We remain bullish on AI demand. We continue to rank AI theme as our top pick for 2025. Market leaders will continue to enjoy the AI tailwind beyond...

CMB International

Semiconductors - PCB sector: 1H24 earnings preview

Seven out of the 16 leading PCB manufacturers in China have announced profit alerts by mid-July, with an avg. 75% to 105% YoY and 21% to 43% QoQ...

CMB International

China PCB Sector- Weak Market in 2023

Global PCB market: The global PCB market showed minimal growth in 2022, with a modest 1.0% YoY increase, but it is expected to face a substantial...

CMB International

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SHANGHAI GENTECH, TCL, JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE, CSSC, CMOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM