HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> has secured pre-tax gain of HK$2.8bn from deemed disposal of Qianhai Business and this is another example for its ability to realise underlying asset value.  </li>
<li>SZI still holds a 50% stake in Qianhai Business, allowing it to capture further upside from this project. The transaction should also improve cash flow as land fees are repaid.</li>
<li>Other logistics transformation projects like the South China Logistics Park, which has an area even larger than Qianhai Business, will provide upside for the longer term. </li>
</ul>



Shenzhen International (152 HK) has secured pre-tax gain of HK$2.8bn from deemed disposal of Qianhai Business and this is another example for its ability to realise underlying asset value.  
SZI still holds a 50% stake in Qianhai Business, allowing it to capture further upside from this project. The transaction should also improve cash flow as land fees are repaid.
Other logistics transformation projects like the South China Logistics Park, which has an area even larger than Qianhai Business, will provide upside for the longer term. 


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): It's the Ability to Realise Underlying Value that Matters

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> posted 11% profit decline for FY21, with Shenzhen Airlines the main drag. Stripping this and one-off items out, its bottom line would have grown by 46.6%.</li>
<li>Logistics growth pipeline is highly visible, and this adds to potential gains from logistics park transformation and strategic offload of matured and suitable projects through REIT or private fund.</li>
<li>The stock remains a deeply undervalued asset play at just 0.48x P/B. Its willingness to share gains with investors has put its dividend yield at 10.4% on current share price.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen International (152 HK) posted 11% profit decline for FY21, with Shenzhen Airlines the main drag. Stripping this and one-off items out, its bottom line would have grown by 46.6%.
Logistics growth pipeline is highly visible, and this adds to potential gains from logistics park transformation and strategic offload of matured and suitable projects through REIT or private fund.
The stock remains a deeply undervalued asset play at just 0.48x P/B. Its willingness to share gains with investors has put its dividend yield at 10.4% on current share price.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): More Room to Realise Underlying Asset Value

<ul>
<li>By deconsolidating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a> (SZX) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> (SZI), SZI's net book value reached HK$16.4bn. Its current market cap of HK$18.9bn implies SZX is almost free. </li>
<li>SZI's high gearing is primarily due to SZX. Excluding SZX, SZI's gearing is just 32.3%. As Shenzhen's flagship SOE, there is consistent monitoring and huge support from the local government.   </li>
<li>SZI's 0.47x P/B is more than 2SD below historical average; but it has proven capability to realise value of underlying assets. Excluding SZX, SZI is on even cheaper 0.32x P/B. </li>
</ul>


By deconsolidating Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) (SZX) from Shenzhen International (152 HK) (SZI), SZI's net book value reached HK$16.4bn. Its current market cap of HK$18.9bn implies SZX is almost free. 
SZI's high gearing is primarily due to SZX. Excluding SZX, SZI's gearing is just 32.3%. As Shenzhen's flagship SOE, there is consistent monitoring and huge support from the local government.   
SZI's 0.47x P/B is more than 2SD below historical average; but it has proven capability to realise value of underlying assets. Excluding SZX, SZI is on even cheaper 0.32x P/B. 


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Deep Dissection Indicates Truly Undervalued

<ul>
<li>We believe there is room for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> to raise dividend payout ratio moderately, following that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway (995 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>It has a comparable gearing with SZEX, positive earnings outlook, improved operating cash flow and manageable capex which all are supportive to raise payout ratio.</li>
<li>If it increases to 55% payout, versus an average of 45.6% previously, we estimate the stock is trading on attractive dividend yield of 11.3% and 12.4%, respectively for FY21-22.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is room for Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) to raise dividend payout ratio moderately, following that of Anhui Expressway (995 HK) and Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK). 
It has a comparable gearing with SZEX, positive earnings outlook, improved operating cash flow and manageable capex which all are supportive to raise payout ratio.
If it increases to 55% payout, versus an average of 45.6% previously, we estimate the stock is trading on attractive dividend yield of 11.3% and 12.4%, respectively for FY21-22.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Is There Any Room for Higher Dividend Payout?

<p>We consider the plan by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> to dispose of its 35.7% direct stake in the Meilin Checkpoint Project a strategic move to move forward its earnings and cash flow from the development. Under normal course, it will have to wait for another 2-3 years to realise such gains and cash. In our view, investors should welcome this decision as the move will also cover an earnings gap in FY21 originally left over from FY20 due to a lack of exceptional gain in this year.</p><p>With a potential capital gain of Rmb2.9bn (HK$3.5bn), SZI is likely to record a historical high net profit for FY21. Moreover, its track record of sharing exceptional gain with investors through special dividends may mean a dividend yield of 12% for FY21 based on the current share price. The enriched financial position will also provide SZI more resources for pursuing logistics expansion, and it has just announced a logistics acquisition in Pingshan, Shenzhen.   </p>

We consider the plan by Shenzhen International (152 HK) to dispose of its 35.7% direct stake in the Meilin Checkpoint Project a strategic move to move forward its earnings and cash flow from the development. Under normal course, it will have to wait for another 2-3 years to realise such gains and cash. In our view, investors should welcome this decision as the move will also cover an earnings gap in FY21 originally left over from FY20 due to a lack of exceptional gain in this year.With a potential capital gain of Rmb2.9bn (HK$3.5bn), SZI is likely to record a historical high net profit for FY21. Moreover, its track record of sharing exceptional gain with investors through special dividends may mean a dividend yield of 12% for FY21 based on the current share price. The enriched financial position will also provide SZI more resources for pursuing logistics expansion, and it has just announced a logistics acquisition in Pingshan, Shenzhen.   

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Cashing in Future Earnings

China

Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited offers toll expressway and road construction and investment services. The Company provides expressway operation, maintenance, and service station leasing services. Shenzhen Expressway also conducts real estate development, advertising, and engineering consulting businesses.

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Shenzhen Expressway Company (600548 CH)

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): It's the Ability to Realise Underlying Value that Matters

We think the market has overlooked Shenzhen Intl's potential and capability to translate its assets into profit and cash flow. The latest Qianhai...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): More Room to Realise Underlying Asset Value

SZIH is an attractive asset play - it does not only has lots of hidden assets, but also the capability to turn them into profit and cash flow, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Deep Dissection Indicates Truly Undervalued

We deconsolidated Shenzhen Expressway from Shenzhen Intl and find that SZI is trading on very cheap 0.32x P/B based on its standalone net asset...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Is There Any Room for Higher Dividend Payout?

Higher dividend payout is a possibility and its financial profile can support such increase. At 55% payout (historical average at 45.6%), FY21-22...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Cashing in Future Earnings

The disposal of Meilin Checkpoint Project should be a welcomed move to shift earnings and cash flow ahead. SZI is likely to share with investors...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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